Welcome to Analyzing Lions. Where the Detroit Lions will be analyzed from an unbiased viewpoint, using logic, statistics, and common sense knowledge.

Sorry, there will be no stat keeping here, and there will be no pre or post game articles. Analyzing Lions will strictly be a place where the many interesting subjects and debates surrounding the team with the greatest fan-base in the NFL.

Our Detroit Lions!

Be Warned however! I often do not think the same as most fans. I don't just follow what they say on the radio shows or what I hear from other fans. I use my own brain, I analyze the subject, and I use logic to decide what to believe. Often I find this leads to a conclusion that doesn't match what the main stream media is pushing.

Friday, June 29, 2018

The Truth to What Tom Brady's 5 Superbowl Rings Mean



How many times have you heard someone say that Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time because he has five Superbowl rings?  There is no stat better than this one.... if you are trying to tell the world that you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

Don't get your panties in a bunch quite yet. I am not saying Brady isn't a great QB. I am not even saying he isn't elite. Hell, I am not even saying Brady isn't the GOAT.... yet.  I am only stating that if you use his Superbowl Rings as a credible statistic to point out how great he is, you simply don't understand the game of Football.

Let's break down the NFL pass.  A QB needs to take a snap from center, drop back and survey the field. He has to find an open receiver and throw the ball to that open receiver. Then that open receiver needs to actually catch it.  Simple enough right?  Most of us have done that same thing playing football in the yard with friends.  Now let's break down what call can go wrong to stop that from being a successfully completed pass.

If just one of the five offensive linemen in front of the QB misses his assignment, it is likely the play will not succeed.

If a receiver doesn't get open, the QB wont have anyone to throw the ball too.

If the receiver does get open, the QB needs to make an accurate throw and assuming he does that, the WR will still need to catch the ball.

What about the receivers? If they want to succeed, they need to get away from the guy covering them, the quarterback needs to throw the ball accurately enough for the receiver to reach it.  Then he still needs to actually catch the ball.

How about the running back?  If the offensive line doesn't open a hole, it makes his ob nearly impossible. If the passing game isn't working, it makes it too easy for the defense to focus on the RB and stop him from getting anywhere.

Let's say that all of the players do their jobs correctly, but the offensive coordinator has designed bad plays or calls bad plays. The offense will likely not be successful still. In 2017, Jim Bob Cooter for the Lions called run plays from formations with 2 or fewer receivers lined up wide of the line. He called pass plays with three or more receivers lined up wide. He did this at an average of around 85% of the plays and one game it hit 91%.


Let's put it this way. Let's pretend the Eagles were to tip off more than 80% of their running plays and their passing plays simply by what formation they lined up in. Do you think they would have won the Superbowl still? If they did this all year, how many games would they win?  Would they lose more games because their talent was worse? Nope!  They would lose more games because tipping off the plays makes it nearly impossible for an offense to be successful.

Now this so far has been showing how dependent the offense is on every player doing their job for it to be successful. Including the coordinator. If they don't do a good job as a unit, they will not score many points, and they will lose a lot of games. And that is just the offense. I don't even need to get in deep about the defense.   Even if the offense plays well and scores 45 points, the team still will not win games if the defense gives up  50 points.

If the cornerbacks don't cover their guys. If they don't tackle well. If Linebackers don't cover, tackle or fill the run lanes. If the linemen don't close off run lanes or put any pressure on the opposing QBs.

To win games, most of this needs to be played well. To beat the good teams in the NFL, you need all of these things to do well. It doesn't matter if the best QB ever to step on the field is playing, if he doesn't get the help he needs, he will not be successful. If the entire team doesn't do well, they will not win.

The NFL is not the NBA.  One player cannot pick up a bad team and carry them on his back to reach the Superbowl.  This is real NFL football. Not a Disney Movie!  Superbowls have practically nothing to do with how good any single player is and they have everything to do with how good the entire team is.

A good example of this is Tom Brady and Arron Rodgers. IF you include the Rings, then obviously Brady is the best ever, but the numbers say otherwise.

Since it can really make a difference on how much preparation a QB gets in the week before a game, I looked up statistics for the two QBs using specific data.  I only included games where the player started and attempted at least 15 passes. At this point of his career, Aaron Rodgers has 139 games under his belt.  So I went back and got Brady's first 139 games as well and matched them up.



Other than wins, Rodgers is better than Brady in every single category.  With 184 more attempts, Rodgers has 3,842 more yards. Averages more than half a yard more per play. 57 more passing TDs and 18 more rushing TDs for a total of 75 more scores. Meanwhile he threw 26 fewer interceptions. And he did this while getting sacked 108 more times. God knows how many more times he was hit and hurried. 

The simple fact is, there is no comparison between these two quarterbacks. Rodgers has not only out performed Brady, he destroys Brady when you compare their stats as fairly as possible. But Brady has the Superbowl ring for each finger on his hand for one reason alone. He has been on a much better team.

Looking at Superbowl rings to judge how good a single player is, does not do anything other than show the world you don't understand football. Because you obviously cant tell the difference between a team stat and a player's stat. Do yourself a favor. Don't be that guy! Instead, be the guy who when someone uses rings or wins and losses as a QB stat, you need to send them a link to this article then sit back and shake your head knowingly.

Ok, now I am saying Brady isn't the GOAT.



Friday, June 1, 2018

It Takes a Stupid Fan to Think Stafford is Not Great

This isn't Hollywood folks, it is real NFL Football. Players on bad teams tend to lose. A lot. It doesn't matter how good they are, if they don't get enough help, they will lose to better teams. You wont get many promos for games saying "Stafford vs Brady". You will see them more in other sports. "Tyson vs Holyfield", "Verlander vs Scherzer", "Lebron vs Durant"!  These all make good promos because in other sports one player can sometime pick a team up and carry it on his back like they do in Hollywood movies. Its not something you see in the NFL. You will see a promo like that once in a while but they don't get near the attention as in other sports for one very simple reason. The NFL is the ultimate in "Team" sports!

Every time I hear someone say "Stafford's not that great! He never wins big games!", I want to slam my forehead into my desk. Since it is hard to type with a concussion when you are a search and destroy typist, I am stuck with just shaking my head slowly and mumbling something about people not knowing anything about football. Every time anyone lifts an NFL player up above another who has bigger stats only because he has Superbowl rings, I look up and ask God why he had to place so many stupid people on the Earth. It is the biggest problem with the world placing so many laws on us. It derails the process of Natural selection!

Another great cliche that uses enough logic to make a goldfish look smart? "Stafford gets all his yards against prevent defenses in the fourth quarter."

Can someone please point out that last year Stafford had more yards in the 2nd and in the 3rd quarters than he had in the 4th quarters!

The worst thing is? These aren't even the dumbest of the lot! Oh no! They have a big brother when it comes to stupidity! The worst ones are those who will comment and laugh at me and say I dont know anything about football when I say Stafford is an elite quarterback who has been stuck on a bad team.

Seriously though, this is not Hollywood. Players don't "will" bad teams to victory over much better teams. On occasion, a bad team can beat a good team, but its not because one player placed them on his back and carried them. It is because the entire team put in their best effort and catch the good team on a bad day.  There are many who think Emmett Smith is a better running back than Barry Sanders.  No, seriously! There are. Stop laughing. Simply because Smith has Superbowl Rings and the all time rushing yards record. They don't even acknowledge that Sanders had the record wrapped up before retiring early. They don't even consider the fact that if Barry had been behind the Cowboys offensive line, that he would have had nearly 2,000 yards every year.  It is simple logic here. If two players are similar in stats year to year but one is on a great team and a great line blocking for him, and the other has a line with two good players and three bad ones? The guy who is doing just as much with less to work with is the better player. Hands down!  For some reason people refuse to use this simple logic with Stafford.

Stafford has 7 consecutive seasons of 4,000+ yards in his 9 year career so far. Only one has more consecutive years of it. Drew Brees. Brady only has 9 total in his 17 years. Manning had 14 total and might have had 12 or 13 in a row if not for his one injured year that split them up. Brees has done it 12 straight times now. No other QB has come close to matching these guys. Even Aaron Rodgers has not done this more than twice in a row yet.

Peyton Manning = 17 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 14, consecutive = 6

Tom Brady = 17 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 9, consecutive = 5

Drew Brees = 16 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 12, consecutive = 12

Matthew Stafford = 9 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 7, consecutive = 7

Then of course people will say its easy to put up a bunch of yards when you throw so many passes, right?  Wrong!

Stafford is different than these others for one reason. He has had less help on his team than the others through his career.  In his 9 seasons, Stafford has only had seven 100 yard rushers spread out through 4 different seasons to take some pressure off his back.  Look, there are two ways of moving the ball in the NFL. Passing and Running. The Lions have never had a run game behind Stafford. This is essentially the same as the Lions trotting Stafford out onto the field every week and just announcing to the other team, "We cant run the ball. You know it. We know it. Everyone knows we have to pass the ball. Try and stop us!" And Stafford still succeeds enough to put up numbers with the best ever. To make it even harder on him, only one season has Stafford enjoyed a good defense that would consistently get him the ball back to give him more opportunities. He has to make the most of the natural process of the drives.

The Lions have had zero run game. They have had bad to average defenses. Every year they go into the season with Stafford's arm and if that fails they have nothing else to offer. For the most part, Stafford has never even enjoyed a real good blocking offensive line to let him enjoy a clean pocket.  In other words, he has never had the luxuries in a game that Brady, Brees, Manning and Rodgers have had in their careers.

What those other QBs have done is nothing less than outstanding. Their numbers make them elite. Some of the greatest to ever play the game. For Matthew Stafford to match them under his circumstances? That is nothing short of phenomenal.  If you think he isnt elite, then show me another average or even decent QB who has put up even close to similar numbers. There have been a whole ton of bad teams in the history of the NFL who couldn't run the ball. Who had to depend on QBs passing the ball a lot. Do you know why there are no others who match Stafford's numbers? Because they were not good enough to do it. Why didn't they get as many opportunities to throw the ball a million times? Because they didn't succeed enough with the chances they had and had to give the other team the ball more.

Stafford is not on pace to be one of the great QBs of this era. He is on pace to make a run at being the greatest of all time. All it will take is for him to stay healthy, and by the way, he is one of the toughest QBs of all time too. 

Oh I'm sorry. I forgot that he cant be called elite without winning a Superbowl.  Well for everyone who thinks those rings make a difference to whether a specific player is great or not? With a little luck maybe someone will design a Speak and Spell for NFL fans someday so they can understand this is a "TEAM" Sport!