Welcome to Analyzing Lions. Where the Detroit Lions will be analyzed from an unbiased viewpoint, using logic, statistics, and common sense knowledge.

Sorry, there will be no stat keeping here, and there will be no pre or post game articles. Analyzing Lions will strictly be a place where the many interesting subjects and debates surrounding the team with the greatest fan-base in the NFL.

Our Detroit Lions!

Be Warned however! I often do not think the same as most fans. I don't just follow what they say on the radio shows or what I hear from other fans. I use my own brain, I analyze the subject, and I use logic to decide what to believe. Often I find this leads to a conclusion that doesn't match what the main stream media is pushing.

Monday, March 23, 2015

Analyzing Detroit Lions General Manager Martin Mayew

Go to any Detroit Lions forum, Comment section, or blog and you will find those who hate him. Well, except this blog of course. Its hard to find haters or lovers when there are no readers.

The most common reasons for hating Mayhew as the GM for the Lions are...
1) He was part of the Millen crew who gave us the only team to ever go an entire season without a win.
2) He mismanaged the contracts of Suh, Stafford and Calvin Johnson.
3) He did not sign any free agents in 2012 after they made the playoffs.
4) He draft Eric Ebron when he had two decent tight ends on the team and had many other greater needs.

I thought I would address these things....
1) There is not one shred of evidence that Millen followed any of Mayhew's advice. Yet there are many in the football world who will say that Matt Millen had an ego problem and would not listen to others. He always did things his own way. There is also the evidence that Millen never listened to anything Mayhew said, because under Millen, the Lions continually got worse and under Mayhew, the Lions have become much better.
2) First off, it is not Mayhews responsibility to work the contracts, but I will admit, he must have to okay them. However, the #1 responsibility of a GM is to supply his coaches with the most talented team he can field to give his coaches the best chance of winning a Superbowl. If the Lions had not restructured the contracts of Suh and the others, they would never have had the money to sign such free agents as Glover Quinn, Stephen Tulloch, James Ihedigbo, and others. To not restructure those contracts he would have been stating that he was giving up on the next season or two while those contracts ran out, so he could possibly lose his best players to free agency. Then we would have been stuck with another team as talented as what Matt Millen gave us.
3) Seriously? You will complain that he didn't try to add players in 2012, but you would want him to not restructure contracts and sign free agents? You hate Mayhew for not signing free agents, but you hate him because he freed up money so he could sign some. Make up your freaking mind already!
4) I don't like the Ebron pick. You don't like the Ebron pick. My dog doesn't like the Ebron pick. But the fact still remains, you cannot name a player a bust after his rookie season. Most players much less tight ends, need a year to develop in the NFL. Lets wait and see what he does this year before you say the pick was stupid.

Now lets move on with a real look at Martin Mayhew.

In 2008, Martin Mayhew took over the worst team to ever play in the NFL. None of the good coaches really wanted the job at that point. Free Agents didn't want to come to the cesspit called the Detroit Lions. The fact is, Mayhew took over what was arguably the most daunting task ever taken on by a general manager. To raise the Detroit Lions from the depths of ruin. He hired a first time head coach in Jim Schwartz and hit free agency signing players like Larry Foote.

Within three years, the Lions had enough talent to win 10 games, and make the playoffs. Considering where they came from, that was an amazingly quick turn around. Unfortunately, Jim Schwartz was not as good of a coach as everyone had hoped. His schemes lived off of the big play. Several times in 2011, the Lions came from behind in the fourth quarter to win games. I remember listening to his post game interview one week late in the season when a reporter asked him about the come from behind victories, and wanted to know what kind of adjustments they were making. He answered that they did not make any adjustments, but that it was just great players making great plays. Schwartz proved this fact in 2012 when defenses dropped two safeties back and doubled up coverage on Calvin Johnson. Having the big play taken away from them, the Lions coaches never made any adjustments to counter the defensive schemes. They continued to call the same plays they did the year before and never really got their offense going because of it. The same problem came up in 2013. The Lions offense started off strong. Stafford was looking elite. Then at mid-season, the entire team seemed to fold under. That major collapse can be attributed to the same thing, no adjustments, as two different defensive players made remarks about the Lions making it easy to beat them because they were running all the same plays. Yet, this is not a Schwartz article, but the point needed to be made. Mayhew had installed enough talent to make the Lions a playoff team, but he was stuck with a coach who did not know how to win with the talent. That was proven when in 2014, Jim Caldwell to virtually the same players to 11 victories and a playoff appearance.

In his time as the Lions GM, Mayhew has taken a team almost void of talent and made them a playoff contender. When his coach proved to be inept, he fired him and hired a proven coach.

But there is yet one more reason so many fans hate Martin Mayhew as the GM for the Lions. Mayhew's history of drafting is on the sketchy side. I wont beat around the bush here. He really was not very good at all.  In 2009, his first draft, he actually did pretty decent. With five picks in the first three rounds, he added Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew, Louis Delmas & Deandre Levy. Three of the four were still starting as of last year. Delmas was also starting, but for another team. But it was pretty much crash and burn after that for a few years.  Basically, in the next three years, he hit with his first round picks in Suh, Fairley (arguably), and Reiff. He also got Tahir Whitehead in the 5th round of the 2012 draft. So yeah, it is understandable that people don't like Mayhew because he doesn't draft well. But if you look deeper, you find that is a bit deceiving, and he proves that by doing something most GMs are not willing to do. He recognized the drafts had been bad and hired Brian Xanders to correct it.

It turns out, contrary to what many believe, it was not that Mayhew did not know how to draft, but that the Lions scouting department were working from the stone age. Xanders set them up with computer programs, data, charts and all kinds of ways to evaluate talent. He basically brought the Lions into the 21st century. Armed with much better info to draft with, Mayhew had his best draft yet. In 2013, he added Ezekiel Ansah, Darius Slay and Larry Warford in the first three picks as well as Punter, Sam Martin in the 5th round.. He also added such depth as Devin Taylor & Theo Riddick. Then in 2014 he hadded the much alighned Eric Ebron pick, but also added Kyle Van Noy and Travis Swanson who will likely be starting this year. Other players such as Nevin Lawson, Caraun Reid, and Tj Jones should get some playing time as well.

So you have a General Manager who took the worst team in NFL history and added enough talent to get to the playoffs in three years, was wise enough to recognize a major flaw in the talent evaluating process and have it addressed, and had the nerve as well as wisdom to fire a coach who was failing and add a good coach in his place. You hate him because he was part of the Millen crew who ruined the Lions? Well he has rebuilt the Lions. You hated him for being so bad at drafting? Well he addressed the evaluation process and has had a couple strong drafts in a row. You hate him for bungling contracts, but he has also added talent and improved that talent even with the large contracts. You hated him for hiring a coach with an ego and could not win with talent? He fired that coach and added a coach who can win. Hate Mayhew for losing Ndamukong Suh? He replaced him with another top-5 defensive tackle in the NFL. For every reason we have to hate Mayhew, if you open your eyes and look at it, you will find he has addressed that same problem. Since he took over, Martin Mayhew has steadily improved and addressed not only the teams weaknesses, but his own. The only thing he has yet to do is win in the playoffs and get to a Superbowl. I have no doubt he will address those things as well.

If you still dont believe he has done well? Try looking at the starting rosters of the team he took over and last years, as well as possibly this years roster.
Starting rosters for the Detroit Lions under Mayhew




Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Can the Detroit Lions Be as Good as Last Year.... or Better?

Can the Detroit Lions win 11 games again next year? So many are saying they see 4 to 6 wins only. Let me assure you, the Lions not only can win 11 games next year, but there is plenty of reason to believe they will.

So they lost the big nasty Ndamukong Suh. That has to definitely mean the defense will take a huge hit right? Not necessarily. Look, losing Suh hurt a lot only if you cant replace him. The Lions turned around and did what nobody thought they could do. They replaced him. Not with some scrub, but with a top-5 defensive tackle who has three all-pro's under his belt. Is Haloti Ngata as good as Suh? No! But he sure isnt that far away. He may even be a better run stuffer than Suh, but just not as good as getting after the quarterback. But all that means is you need to get after the quarterback a different way. Better defensive end play is one way. Blitzing more is another. Will the Lions defense be #2 again this coming year? Likely not, but it could still end up top-10 at worse, and maybe even top-5.

So how can they get better if their defense will be worse? Right? The answer to that is Offense!

I know there is a lot of people who think the Lions offense is really as bad as it looked last year. They are wrong! Very wrong! Look, there was basically two reasons the offense did not look good last year. And neither has to do with Stafford or Ebron.

1) Scheme - The line was supposed to be a good one last year, but what wasn't put out in public very loudly was that they changed it into a zone blocking line. This is a completely different way of blocking and it takes some time for each player to get used to it. It takes longer for the entire line to gel.
2) Injuries - Looking first at the offensive line, Waddle missed 4 games and Warford missed three games. Reiff missed a game, Raiola was suspended a game, and Sims was slow getting healthy after off-season surgery. Often players were out there while still fighting their injuries. This made the gel period even slower. Calvin Johnson missed three games and was nothing more than a decoy in two others. The Tight-Ends, which this offensive scheme is based around, were oft injured as well. At one point all three tight ends were injured and the Lions had to bring up players from the practice squad. Then of course there was Reggie Bush who was not very healthy all year.

I know. You cant always keep using excuses for them right? The way I believe it, you dont make up excuses for a player or a team, but if the excuse is there and it is legitimate, you need to consider it. The fact is, the offense was learning a new scheme last year. Not any scheme, but one that is widely considered to be one of the most difficult in the NFL. Getting all 11 guys on the same page takes time as it is, but when many of the key players are often injured, it makes getting the scheme down almost impossible. If this offensive unit is healthy this year, it will be much better by default. Add the fact they will have another off-season and preseason to get it together, there is every reason to believe they will be a better unit this year.

I am completely expecting this offense to be vastly improved this year. They should be more healthy, they will have a year of this system under their belt, and certain players will improve. Namely, Ebron. Many think he is already a bust, but not many TEs come into the NFL and look real good. It usually takes a year for them to develop and get acclimated to the NFL pace.

On top of that, there is a high chance the Lions add a good fast running back in the mix from the draft. Joique Bell is a decent RB, but the simple truth is, he just isnt very fast. Defenses did not fear him nor Bush last year. The Lions were one of the least blitzed against teams in the NFL. That means teams were dropping extra men into coverage rather than sending them in. That in turn made Stafford try to find an open WR among more defenders. If the Lions add a RB with real speed, he will force defenses to worry about giving up the big gains. They will be forced to bring Safeties in closer to the line and/or put more players in the box to stop the run. That opens WRs and makes life much easier in the pass game.

So all in all, we should have a defense that is a little worse, but an offense that is far better. Even if you believe the schedule is a lot harder this year, the Lions are likely to be just as good as last year and could actually be better.




Sunday, March 15, 2015

Where the Detroit Lions Sit After Losing Suh

Many believe Suh wanted to leave all along. That he never wanted to stay with the Lions. The fact is however, nobody knows what he was thinking. We can only theorize on how he felt, and of course, when a top player leaves a team, it is only natural to believe he wanted to leave. It is a way of rationalizing the loss. It is still a theory though.

The Detroit Free Press had an exclusive interview with Ndomukong Suh and he finally opened up and spoke about what had happened. Here is the link.... Ndamukong Suh Interview. Basically, it comes down to this. Ndamukong Suh says he never wanted to leave. That he had been expecting to sign with the Lions again. That Miami just offered him too good of a deal and he couldnt refuse it.

After reading the article, here is my belief. Mayhew was offering Suh a very strong deal. He did not believe any team would top it by much. Suh knew what the Lions would offer and didnt think any team would top it by much. So both sides were expecting the Lions would re-sign Suh. This would explain why Mayhew never was willing to trade Suh in the past and why they did not hit him with the franchise tag. They completely expected that whatever any team offered him, the Lions would be able to top. Then Miami threw an offer that surprised the entire NFL world. Too much for even the Lions to match. To much for Suh to refuse. So the Lions were suddenly without their top defensive player and needing to find a way to replace him.

Many thought the Lions would sign Fairley if they lost Suh, but instead they said they would not chase after him. Instead they thought on their feet and pulled a shocking move of their own. They handed the Ravens their 4th round and 5th round pick, for the Raven's 7th round pick and DT - Haloti Ngata. As quick as that, they had replaced Suh with another DT who may not be as good, but is still a top end DT. The problem now however, is the Lions still have several positions to address and only three draft picks worth mentioning.

Here are the positions the Lions still need to address (at the time of writing this).
LG -- With Sims still waiting on offers in free agency, the Lions are in need of a Left Guard. The last I heard, they were talking to Justin Blalock, but he reportedly visited the Lions and left town without a deal. I am fully expecting them to bring back Rob Sims for one more year. Many fans do not like him, but last year he was coming off of surgery and it took over half a year for him to get back into game shape.
RB -- I like Bell as a RB, but lets face the facts, he did not face many in the box last year and he still didnt have a great year. Decent maybe, but not great. The Lions need a RB with real speed. Speed that will force defenses to bring more men into the box to stop him. Speed that will bring the safeties in closer rather than sitting deep and taking the big play away. Enough speed that will help open the passing game again.
#3 WR -- They have Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, but that is it. Unless you are confident Ebron will come to life this year, they only have two solid receivers. With Calvin stretching one side of the field out, and Tate causing havoc in the middle of the field, what the Lions need is a WR with elite speed to pull safeties with him down field and open the others up.
DT -- Ngata is a great pickup, but the Lions need another good DT to help stop the run and push the middle of the pocket back at the QB. I think they will end up re-signing Moseley, but they would then have two older DTs and will need a third one sometime soon to start developing.
DE -- This is likely the least of their needs, but a good DE living across from Ansah would help immensely. Especially with Ngata in the middle now. Ngata is a great run stuffer, but he is not as good in pass rushing. Without Suh putting so much pressure on QBs from the DT spot, the Lions need more out of their Ends.
CB -- They still have Slay but Mathis has become a free agent. It is so important to have two good CBs in todays NFL, that this may be the most important position of all to address. I expect them to bring back Mathis, but they still need another in the draft this year. It usually takes a CB a year to develop in the NFL.Mathis is getting older and it could blow an entire season if Mathis finally loses his touch and the Lions dont have another CB developing. You can get by in the NFL with one good and one average DT. With an average DE, LB or even Safety. If there is one position in the NFL a team cannot get by with an average player, it is cornerback. You must have two good CBs or the NFL QBs will rip you apart.

Here are the players I see the Lions bringing back.
LG - Sims
DT - C.J.Moseley
DE - George Johnson
CB - Rashean Mathis

That leaves them with a CB (developing), RB, #3 WR, OL, & DT (developing) the Lions will still need to add and not having a 4th or 5th round pick in the draft. I think they will add a RB and a CB, and one player in the trenches, either offensive or defensive, with the first three rounds. This will not fill all of their needs, but it will only leave their least important needs.