There is a large push from the fan base for the Lions to draft offensive line this year, and one cannot argue that it is a need. But is it really the most important need? With only three picks worth talking about in the upcoming draft, I want to give you some very interesting reasons why a running back would be the most important player they can add.
A lot of proponents of taking an offensive lineman keep saying that a great offensive line is the most important thing to have, but they are ignoring one important fact. It takes five great players to have a great offensive line. With no 4th or 5th round picks this year, the Lions cant spend more than one on the O-line. So we are not debating between a great Running Back and a great O-line. We are talking about having a great RB or adding one great lineman. Lets face the truth here. If they add one lineman, he is not going to have a huge impact as a rookie. One lineman wont change a bad line into aa great line anyway. So if you think this line is so bad, one player wont make a huge difference to it. However, a true #1 running back can make an immediate impact to both the run game and the pass game.
I know, you may believe the NFL is going the way of the RB by Committee and they are a dime a dozen right? I did a little study and I would like to list a few stats I found from this study.
First off, I needed to decide what accounts for a team using the RB by Committee approach, and what makes it a #1 RB approach, so I chose this rule and stuck with it. I took the top two RBs for each team and tallied their rushing attempts. Of their total carries, if one of the RBs got the ball 70% of the time or more, I named it a #1RB team. If the division was less than 70%, I listed it as a RB by Committee (RBC). These are based on 2014 stats only.
1) 16 teams used the #1RB and 16 teams used the RBC approach.
RUSHING
2) Of the 12 teams with 10+ wins, 8 of them used the #1RB (66%)
3) Of the 14 teams with 7 or fewer wins, 8 of them used the RBC (57%)
4) 3 of the 4 top teams in rushing yards used the #1RB (75%)
5) 9 of the top 13 teams in rushing yards used the #1RB (69%)
PASSING
6) 12 of the top 17 teams in passing yards used the #1RB (70%)
7) 10 of the worst 13 teams in passing yards used the RBC ( 77%)
SCORING
8) 9 of the top 12 scoring teams used the #1RB (75%)
9) All 6 of the 6 worst scoring teams used the RBC (100%)
By no means am I saying that you have to have a great RB to win. The Patriots won the Superbowl with virtually no running game whatsoever. But these numbers cannot be ignored. Having a true #1 RB raises the chance of success immensely.
So lets look at Lions history. When were the last times the Detroit Lions had an offense that scared defenses? In 2013 the Lions signed Reggie Bush and in the first half of the season, the offense was very strong. Stafford put up elite numbers in the first 8 games that year. I have placed my beliefs on why the Lions actually collapsed in the Stafford article, but the fact remains. In the first half, the offense was very strong and it was the first year we had Bush in the back field. Then in 2011 when Stafford put up elite numbers again and the Lions made the playoffs. Who was their RB in most of 2011? Jahvid Best, a running back with elite speed who forced defenses to worry about him. And the time before that? Way back before the turn of the century when they had the phenomenal Barry Sanders. When the Lions have had a RB who was consider to be a real home run threat, they have had their best offensive years. They have not had a great offensive year without one.
Last year the Lions faced fewer blitzes than all but maybe one other team. Defenses did not bother blitzing them. Defenses did not bother adding more players in the box and instead opted to drop more players into pass protection. So Bell had a slightly better than average year while facing fewer defenders in the box, meanwhile Stafford had extra defenders to search through to find open receivers. So without changing anything on the offense except to take out the slow powerful RB in Bell, and adding a #1 RB with real elite speed, what would happen? Defenses did not fear Bell. They knew that if Bell broke through into the second tier, they would still tackle him before he could do any real damage. But with real speed back there, they have to think differently. No defense wants to even imagine getting burnt by a long play. If they see a real threat in the backfield, they will bring more defenders in closer. This in turn, opens up the passing game because there are fewer players covering. Even if you added another O-lineman, you wont have this effect on a defense. Add a real home run threat and it changes everything!
I have heard it said over and over again. The 2015 draft is loaded with good RBs. In recent years there have been no running backs coming out of college who were real #1 RBs. This year Gurley and Gordon are named by most to be the best of the best in RBs to come out in the draft. If one of them are available, it would greatly benefit the Lions to take him. They can still draft the Corner Back and Lineman in rounds two or three. Though it may benefit them more to trade down and acquire a pick in the third round, if the Lions drafted the top #1 type of RB in the first round, it would still be a very smart move.
Do not let the myth of the RB by committee scare you. Only half of the teams use the committee and I believe most of them do it only because they simply do not have the RB who is good enough. Yet, with the #1 RB approach and the RB by Committee approach being split down the middle, the numbers supports that the #1 RB teams will have more offensive success.
Friday, April 3, 2015
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