As we all know, Stafford was drafted #1 overall, in the 2009 NFL Draft by our beloved Detroit Lions. He was expected to be the next great thing and instead, he only started 13 games in his first two years due to injuries. For the most part, he suffered two dislocated shoulders (same shoulder). So his career really didn’t take off until his third season in 2011.
2011 -- It was the year we all had been waiting for. Stafford had surgery on his shoulder in the off-season and to the knowledge of most, he was healthy for the first full season of his career. Some would say he was great that year if not for the 16 picks he threw. But the truth is, if you remember, Stafford was not healthy the entire season. In the middle of the season, Stafford hit his hand on a helmet and broke a finger on his throwing hand. It took him the bye-week and four games to get healthy again.
Stats for four games Stafford was playing with the broken finger…
Comp% 65.96% - 1,348 yards - 8 TDs - 10 Picks with a 1-3 win loss record.
In the 10 games Stafford was healthy in 2011 …..
Comp% 62.53% - 3,690 yards - 33 TDs - 6 Picks with a 9-3 win loss record.
Any way you look at those numbers, Matthew Stafford put up elite stats in 2011 while he was healthy. He took the Lions to their first playoff game in over a decade. Unfortunately, the win-loss record of 10-6 for the Lions was a deceiving stat. The team was not as good as it portrayed itself to be. The Lions did not have a good running game and the offense was based on the big play. The Scott Linehan offense was not built to methodically move the ball down the field and score, but it was built to beat teams with big plays. That allowed defenses to study their game and prepare for them in the off-season. One thing to note here, is that after the Lions had made several come from behind wins, Jim Schwartz was asked about what adjustments they were making at half time for the Lions to keep coming back in games. His answer… “We don’t make adjustments. We just let great players make great plays.” This was the beginning to me not being his fan, and as the season continued, I saw just how flawed they were. After the year was over, many fans were expecting the Lions to win 11+ games the next year. I started saying how I expected them to win 8 or 9 games tops and it would not surprise me if they were worse.
2012 -- The Lions were definitely worse, as they only won 4 games and Matthew Stafford ended up looking average. Staying healthy for the entire season, he only completed 59.83% of his passes. Though he threw for 4,967 yards, he only threw 20 TDs and had another 17 picked off. So why the drop off?
In the first weeks of the season it became apparent that defensive coordinators had done their homework, as they dropped two safeties deep and doubled up on Calvin Johnson. Essentially, teams took away the Lions big play and forced them to methodically move the ball down the field. Something they were not built to do. As the season continued, it became evident that Schwartz and Linehan did not have an answer for how defenses were trying to stop them. Simply put, the Detroit Lions coaches did not make any adjustments again.
After only 4 wins in 2012, many people were calling for another bad year. I believed they would win 6 games. Though I had no faith in the coaches anymore, I believed the Lions had enough talent to win more games.
2013 -- The Lions made a move that made a big difference. They brought in Reggie Bush to be the RB. Bush had a reputation as a playmaker. A runningback with speed enough to make defenses pay. This paid off, as defenses were no longer able to drop back and play deep, taking away the big play, without taking a chance Bush would take the next carry for a TD. This forced teams to play a more honest defense and Stafford once again was putting up elite numbers.
In the first 8 games of 2013, Stafford's stats were….
Comp% 62.43% - 2,617 yards - 16 TDs - 6 Picks with a 5-3 win loss record.
Then Stafford seemed to fall apart as the next 8 games were….
Comp% 54.05% - 2,033 yards - 13 TDs - 13 Picks with a 2-6 win loss record.
Obviously there was a dramatic drop off, but you have to ask yourself, why? If Stafford was simply an inconsistent quarterback, he would have a good game followed by a couple bad games, then a good game or two followed by more bad games, etc… His season was far too consistent (great for 8 games and bad for 8 games) to accept it as simple inconsistency. So what caused such a big drop off?
Unfortunately, believe it or not, this is also a case of the coaches not making adjustments. Not once, but twice in the second half, opposing players came out and explained why they were able to come back and beat the Lions. Both players eluded to the fact that Lions were running the same plays in the second half of the year as the first half, and the second half of games as they did in the first half of games. Now, if only one player would have said that, I would have shrugged it off. But the knowledge that Jim Schwartz himself had said in 2011 that they didn’t make adjustments, and the fact that they never made adjustments to counter what defenses were doing in 2012, and then to have a second player say something very similar? This made it a clear case in my opinion. The coaches were calling the same ole plays and defensive players were recognizing them on the field.
Now of course some would say that shouldn’t make a team completely collapse. I would beg to differ. These are professional athletes, but they are human. When a receiver is finding there is no room to run because the defensive backs are following their routes so well, they will try to do too much. They will tend to start turning to run before securing the catch. That usually ends up with a lot more dropped passes. If the receivers are never getting open and the team starts losing, quarterbacks will start trying to force passes into tighter windows instead of throwing the ball away or taking a sack. This leads to more interceptions. Losing will force running backs to try pushing for the extra yards rather than securing the ball with two arms when he is tackled. When a player, no matter how great the player is, is always seeing tough times and put into too much pressure too often, they will start to make mistakes. This is why the Detroit Lions fell apart. IF it was just Matthew Stafford who fell apart, I would have to toss this theory out the window and blame the quarterback. But it wasn’t just Stafford. He was throwing passes he shouldn’t and making wild throws, but receivers and running backs were also dropping passes and fumbling the ball a lot. When an entire team falls apart, you cant blame one player, but you have to look for a reason why an entire team would collapse. That fits the fact that defenders were recognizing plays and making life impossible; because the coaches once again either refused, or did not have the imagination to make adjustments.
One can find reasons to say Stafford is not a very good quarterback if they want, but there are arguments to be made on why those reasons cant be right. If he simply wasn’t very good, he would not have had the long stretches (10 games in 2011 and 8 games in 2013) when he was elite. Bad quarterbacks can have great games. Even a few great games, but they don’t have that many games of being elite and then that many games of being average. Matthew Stafford’s streaks are more in the line of something other than his own abilities causing him to falter.
What about 2014 then? Stafford was not great in 2014 was he? Yet he didn’t have Schwartz to hurt him then! This is true, but there was a lot more to hold Stafford down in 2014 than bad coaches. First, there was the simple fact that the entire team was learning a new scheme and one of the most difficult playbooks in the NFL. It takes time for an entire offense to learn it and gel together in a scheme. Secondly, there is the issue with all of the injuries to the offensive line. By the time the season ended in the excruciating game in Dallas, the Lions offensive Line was down to two third string linemen on the right side of the line. When a line cannot give the QB time to find an open WR, and the receivers time to get open, the offense is not going to move the ball. Third, there is the fact that Reggie Bush was either hurt or simply not fast enough anymore. He did not pose enough of a threat to defenses and so they dropped the safeties back again and blitzed less against the Lions than almost all other teams, instead dropping players into coverage to make it tougher for Stafford.
To make things clear, 2014 was not a problem with Stafford, but a collage of problems that made the season almost impossible for Stafford. He was forced to dump the ball off a lot while under pressure and was not able to go down field much. It was a season where you simply cannot judge any one player over. In the past, when placed in a position to succeed, Stafford has indeed put up elite numbers. He will again.
Many fans want to hate Stafford and wont look at things the way I pointed them out in this article. So there is one other thing you can do to judge him. There is no quarterback to ever play in the NFL who can do it all by himself. Every great QB needs 3 of the following things.
1) Good receivers.
2) Good Play calling.
3) Good protection.
4) a decent running game.
All of your best QBs have three of those things. But name a time when Stafford has had three of them in one season. Maybe the 2011 season, but if then, it only fits my arguments.
