Welcome to Analyzing Lions. Where the Detroit Lions will be analyzed from an unbiased viewpoint, using logic, statistics, and common sense knowledge.

Sorry, there will be no stat keeping here, and there will be no pre or post game articles. Analyzing Lions will strictly be a place where the many interesting subjects and debates surrounding the team with the greatest fan-base in the NFL.

Our Detroit Lions!

Be Warned however! I often do not think the same as most fans. I don't just follow what they say on the radio shows or what I hear from other fans. I use my own brain, I analyze the subject, and I use logic to decide what to believe. Often I find this leads to a conclusion that doesn't match what the main stream media is pushing.

Monday, May 28, 2018

7th Round Draft Pick, Nick Bawden May be Key to Run Game

Detroit Lions 7th round pick, Fullback Nick Bawden, just may be the best pick of the 2018 draft.

That is a huge statement to make for a guy drafted in the last round. In this case however, he could very well deserve it. Not because he is so good mind you. We wont see that until they strap on pads and start hitting, but simply for what he represents.

I could not even guess how many years it has been since the fullback position was a true part of the Lions offense. They have had fullbacks in the past, but they were usually more of the hybrid Fullback. A guy who is meant for running with the ball and swinging out for passes as much as lead blocking. Those guys tend to be slightly smaller than true lead blocking fullbacks.

Michael Burton was the last player to man the position for the Lions. He was listed at 6' and 235 lbs.  Burton was a decent player but nothing special. The Lions let him go before the 2017 campaign was under way.

It is something the Lions last few coaches have taken as an unneeded luxury. They never really understood how import a good lead blocker is for a run game. Consequently, the Lions running game has been one of the worst in the NFL in recent years. To the point where they completely gave up even trying to run on short yardage downs in the second half of last season.

Then here in the 2018 draft they selected Nick Bawden, who comes in 2 inches taller and ten pound heavier, and he represents a change back to the old ways of running the ball. When the offensive line opens a hole up, it will be the fullbacks duty to clear the LB or Safety who is trying to fill it. Without a lead blocker in recent years, the Lions left it up to the ball handler to either beat the defense-men to the hole or run him over. The Lions have not had anyone fast enough to beat them to the hole and they haven't had anyone with enough power to run over them. This year they have added a running back in Legarrette Blount who can run over them, Kerryon Johnson who might actually beat them to the hole, and as icing on top, they added a fullback who will clear the way.

Last year the Lions talent at running back was not as much of the problem as many fans seem to think. The real problem was in the run scheme. The entire scheme and play calling by Jim Bob Cooter was anti-run at best. Everything they did was the worst thing they could do to have a run game succeed. Adding a fullback this season shows that Patricia might actually know what he is doing and I am expecting to see the first season Stafford has actually had a true run game to back him up.

Some people believe the Lions had a good run game when they had Jahvid Best, but its not really true. Best had a few great runs. He was a threat to take it to the house on any play. That gave the Lions a true run threat and helped Stafford immensely. Right up until Best got hurt again. But Best was not a real threat on short yardage plays. So he only helped Stafford for a couple downs at a time.  Now the Lions should have a run game that will be a threat to get what they need on every down and defenses will not be able to focus on the passing game alone.

So far in Stafford's career it has been a case of, "We cant run the ball. You know we are passing. We know we're passing. Try to stop us!" And the fact Stafford is one of only two QBs to ever have seven consecutive seasons of 4,000 yards or more, says that those defenses couldn't stop them from moving the ball very often. Imagine what he might do with the opposing defenses having to worry about the run as well.

Sunday, May 27, 2018

Stop Feeding the Beast of Racism

Sometimes people will have the intention to do the right thing but make a mistake and do it the wrong way. Unfortunately, too often when they make this mistake, they have too much pride to admit it and correct it. Instead they will continue to do the same thing wrong, even when they know it is wrong, just because they have too much pride to admit they were wrong!  This is what is happening with all of the kneeling during the anthem stuff going on!

Colin Kaepernick had good intentions. Noble intentions. He wanted to bring more attention on racism and police brutality.  I applaud him for that. He tried to do something. He tried to take action. Only he took the wrong action and disrespected the National Anthem and American flag.

Some people try to say that its not disrespecting the National symbols. I have heard it was a military man who came up with the idea. They will point out that a lot of military soldiers are actually behind the action. You know what I say?  I don't give a crap who is behind it or designed it!

If Kaepernick didn't think it was disrespectful, he would never have knelt in the first place. The very reason he knelt during the National Anthem is because he knew that disrespecting the National Symbols would draw a lot of attention. And he was right. But the first simple fact I will point out is "Yes" indeed it is disrespectful to the American Flag and the National Anthem. So lets be clear on that and move on to the next point of this article.

He meant to draw a lot of attention. That is understood. But it is the wrong attention. Because there are so many millions of people (Not all veterans) who are offended by this blatant disrespect for the country they still love, nobody is talking about how we need to stop racism. Nobody is screaming about how we need to stop police brutality. Instead the debates have only been about whether it is right or wrong to kneel. When you protest something, the focus should be placed on the problem you are protesting. In this case it isn't. I don't remember one debate on Facebook or on the news or anywhere about whether racism is bad or not.  Every time the kneeling comes up the focus is strictly on the disrespect of the National symbols.  For that reason alone they should stop kneeling.  But that's not the only reason and its not even the biggest reason.

IF you took a poll, I would bet over 95% of Americans would say that racism is wrong. Just as many would say police brutality is wrong. You may get some who will argue that its not only whites who are racist or that the truth is that only a small percentage of cops are actually corrupt, but even those would say racism and police brutality is wrong. So it would only be logical then to do something that would draw attention to the problems and unite the country against them. Only kneeling doesn't do that. It doesn't unite us for a common cause. It divides the country instead.

Some would say that racism causes division. Some might say that its the opposite and its division that breeds racism. One thing anyone would have to agree on is that racism and division go hand in hand. I see racism and division as similar to an NFL Offense run game and passing game. They need each other to reach their potential. One doesn't make the other. They both feed off each other. Racism and division feed off each other. So how does it help to stop racism by doing something that causes more division?

Again, I know Kaepernick had good intentions. I appreciate that. More power to him. Unfortunately the way he decided to act was the wrong choice. It didn't bring attention to racism and police brutality so much as it took the focus off those horrible things and placed it on the kneeling and disrespecting America.  Because of that, instead of uniting 95% of Americans for a common cause, it is offending half of America. It is taking millions of people who would actually want to get on board and fight racism and pushing them away because they wont take part in disrespecting their own country!

I don't know who it was that started this, but most of the players in the NFL have started linking arms instead. I cannot even begin to say what a great idea that is! That is what is called finding a way to protest in a positive way that ALL Americans can get behind. It does not disrespect our symbols. It does not say all Americans are racists! It does not say ALL cops are corrupt. It does not upset anyone! Yet it still makes a statement.

If the NFL players were smart, they wouldn't just continue linking arms with each other, they would start urging the fans to do the same thing in the stands. Get all fans to link arms in a stand against racism! Those who have been kneeling can make a statement that makes people want to join them rather than turn against them!

Because of the debates I have been having over this, I designed a simple logo to stand for "Unity"...


This is to represent a black arm interlocking with a white arm. A show of uniting against Racism. Maybe it some sort of grandeur in my head or something, but I can see players wearing arm bands with this logo. I would bet you that if it meant no more players kneeling, the NFL would even allow them to place it on the sleeves of uniforms. Think about all the pink players wear in support of finding a cure for Breast Cancer. Look at the support that gets!  That is what the fight against racism should be trying to accomplish. Not offending half the country.

Racism is a monster. It is a beast!  If you want to see racism destroyed, the people of this country will need to unite to fight the beast. Not feeding it!

Kaepernick had great intentions, but he made a mistake in his choice on how to make his stand. He needs to put his pride aside and stop dividing this country and instead start uniting it!

I have placed this symbol on a few items in a Zazzle store if you are interested in them. More items will be coming. I am not looking to get rich. I have not sold a single item in any store anyway. I just want to get people on board with Uniting America against Racism instead of dividing it.

Unite to Fight Racism

Who Should the Lions Keep for Running Backs?

The Lions have a bunch of running backs on their roster and the majority of fans can probably guess who will be kept on the roster. I have a different take and it may surprise some of you.

As usual when coming from me, be prepared for a bit of a different point of view and not one that just follows what most media and analysts tell us what to believe.

There are a couple of players who are absolute locks at this point. Though this article will be on the understanding they are healthy.

Lagarette Blount - He will be  on the roster day one. No doubt about it. He is the best short yardage back in the NFL in recent years and the Lions had no ability to get the tough yards last year. They signed him for a reason and he is a lock to be playing week one.

Kerryon Johnson - The Lions not only took him in the second round, but they traded up to get him. They are very high on this kid and no matter how bad he looks in preseason, he will get every opportunity to develop on the Lions NFL roster.

These next two guys are 90% locks.

Nick Bawden - Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn have laid everything on the line to get a running game going. Ignoring some major defensive holes, they drafted an offensive lineman in the first round and followed that up by trading up to get Kerryon Johnson. With only six picks in the draft, they spent four of them on offense. It is safe to say that they drafted a fullback with every intention of using him, so unless he really pukes up his preseason, he will be on the roster in week one.

Ameer Abdullah - A lot of fans dont like him as he has not proven himself yet in Detroit. The Lions coaches will give him one more year though. However many carries he had and even though he lost his starting job last year, Ameer has yet to be given a fair chance to succeed. Lets face the facts here. Last year the Lions blocking scheme sucked. The play calling sucked. The offensive line was injury riddled (again). Basically, Todd Gurley would not have looked good on the Lions last year, so it is ridiculous to expect Abdullah to be better than Gurley.  This year they have a new Head Coach, they added two new offensive line coaches. Supposedly they are cleaning up some of Cooters play calling mistakes. And they added a Fullback.  Considering Kerryon Johnson's health history, the Lions need a RB who can run the ball if injuries take their toll, and Abdullah is the only other RB on the roster who fits the style of Kerryon even a little.

That is four running back positions filled and likely one more to fill. Here is where I will surprise you. It will likely be Theo Riddick, but that is the wrong move.

What? How can you cut the best receiving back in the NFL?  Did I get your reply correct? Because he has that reputation, I am expecting Patricia to believe it too and keep him. But if Patricia really knows what he is doing, he will try to trade Riddick during the preseason. Why? Because Riddick is actually not near as good as you have been told.

I know, I know, he had 80 catches in 2015. He has had 186 grabs over the last three years. He has an absolutely sick first move to make would be tacklers miss. I agree with all of that. Now let me fill you in on a few things you might not know.  In the last three seasons, there have been a total of 90 RBs to catch at least 25 passes in a season.  This is how Riddick compares....

Average yards per catch -- Riddick's best season he had 8.7 yards per catch. That is good for 30th. His other two seasons he comes in at 35th and tied for 70th. 

20+ yard plays
Now this is like most stats where they can be deceiving because a player who gets more passes thrown to them has a much higher chance of having more 20+ yard plays.  So instead of giving the total of these plays, I looked up how many plays they go between a 20+ yard reception. 

Riddick's three seasons -- In 2015 he had a 20+ yard reception once every 11.43 catches. In 2016 he had a 20+ yard reception once every 26.5 catches. In 2017 he had a 20+ yard reception once every 10.7 catches. 

In the three seasons, 25 other RBs had 20+ yard plays more often.

You are probably wondering how he compared in his best season alone. in 2017 alone, he would have ranked 11th. In his best season, he wasn't even in the top 10.

40+ yard plays -- Same statistic stipulations.
In the last 3 seasons (186 catches), Riddick has a grand total of 1 catch for 40+ yards.

In the three seasons, 58 RBs have had at least 1 reception for 40+ yards. Eight of them have done it more than once.

Basically what I am saying is that the only statistics of Riddicks that make him look good, have to do with him getting fed the ball so often. If the Lions just keep Johnson on the field on 3rd and long instead of using Riddick, there is a pretty fair chance he will do more with the ball when he gets it. In fact, I would say that Abdullah and even Zenner would do more with the ball when they get it.

Yes Riddick has great hands. He is a great route runner. He has awesome agility and makes tacklers miss. I don't deny any of that. In fact, if Riddick had any power or speed, I would venture to say he would be a top 5 RB in the NFL. The problem is he does not have speed and he does not have power. He needs to make the first guy miss and hope to God he has open space to run in order to do any damage at all. And more often than not, he still doesn't get very far.

Now there are some teams out there who would actually be better off with Riddick, because he does have some awesome abilities. But the Lions have other running backs who are still good route runners, good hands, and either have the agility to make a guy miss, or have the power to break through a tackle. And they would have a much higher chance of breaking a long run.  For the Lions to keep Riddick, he should be head and shoulders above them to make it worth putting him on the field. Because Riddick cannot run with the ball off of handoffs, and is only good as a receiver out of the backfield, every defense knows what is coming when he is on the field. So to make that a viable option, he needs to be their best option by far, and he simply is not.

Yet Riddick still has a good reputation in the NFL as a good receiver out of the backfield. If the Lions were smart, they would look to trade him. Get something for him while his value is high and give the last running back spot to Zack Zenner.

Zack Zenner -- A lot of fans dont like him for some reason. They point to last year and look at how Zenner failed in every short yardage opportunity and say he sucks. What they want to ignore is that the Lions had terrible play calling, horrible blocking schemes and the offensive line was injury riddled. Blount was not going to convert most of those plays last year and he is the best short yardage guy in the NFL.  But if you go back to 2016 when Zenner actually got some real playing time? You find he was one of the best runners the Lions have had since Sanders retired.  He hit holes when he had them, he broke tackles, he made taacklers miss, he caught the ball well and he didn't fumble. He is one of the best all around RBs we have had in a long time and the Lions simply did not want to use him. 

Even if you don't think he is that good, there are more reasons he should be the one to keep.
1) AA is clearly the best backup option for Johnson. What if Blount gets hurt? Do you want to start using Johnson as your power runner with his injury history? Zenner is the only viable option at this point unless you want to hand the ball to the FB. But then he wouldn't have a FB to block for him.  Zenner is the best backup for Blount we have.

2) Zenner is a very good Special Teams player.

Dwayne Washington -- Unless the Lions are going to keep 6 running backs, Washington is playing this preseason as an audition for another team.  The thing with Washington is he has a lot of good intangibles. He has all the qualities of a good RB that you cannot teach. He has power, speed, agility, and hands. He needs time to develop vision and he needs experience to do that. If he got the experience, there is a chance he could turn into a good running back, but unfortunately the Lions do not have the room or the time to give him that experience.