There is a large push from the fan base for the Lions to draft offensive line this year, and one cannot argue that it is a need. But is it really the most important need? With only three picks worth talking about in the upcoming draft, I want to give you some very interesting reasons why a running back would be the most important player they can add.
A lot of proponents of taking an offensive lineman keep saying that a great offensive line is the most important thing to have, but they are ignoring one important fact. It takes five great players to have a great offensive line. With no 4th or 5th round picks this year, the Lions cant spend more than one on the O-line. So we are not debating between a great Running Back and a great O-line. We are talking about having a great RB or adding one great lineman. Lets face the truth here. If they add one lineman, he is not going to have a huge impact as a rookie. One lineman wont change a bad line into aa great line anyway. So if you think this line is so bad, one player wont make a huge difference to it. However, a true #1 running back can make an immediate impact to both the run game and the pass game.
I know, you may believe the NFL is going the way of the RB by Committee and they are a dime a dozen right? I did a little study and I would like to list a few stats I found from this study.
First off, I needed to decide what accounts for a team using the RB by Committee approach, and what makes it a #1 RB approach, so I chose this rule and stuck with it. I took the top two RBs for each team and tallied their rushing attempts. Of their total carries, if one of the RBs got the ball 70% of the time or more, I named it a #1RB team. If the division was less than 70%, I listed it as a RB by Committee (RBC). These are based on 2014 stats only.
1) 16 teams used the #1RB and 16 teams used the RBC approach.
RUSHING
2) Of the 12 teams with 10+ wins, 8 of them used the #1RB (66%)
3) Of the 14 teams with 7 or fewer wins, 8 of them used the RBC (57%)
4) 3 of the 4 top teams in rushing yards used the #1RB (75%)
5) 9 of the top 13 teams in rushing yards used the #1RB (69%)
PASSING
6) 12 of the top 17 teams in passing yards used the #1RB (70%)
7) 10 of the worst 13 teams in passing yards used the RBC ( 77%)
SCORING
8) 9 of the top 12 scoring teams used the #1RB (75%)
9) All 6 of the 6 worst scoring teams used the RBC (100%)
By no means am I saying that you have to have a great RB to win. The Patriots won the Superbowl with virtually no running game whatsoever. But these numbers cannot be ignored. Having a true #1 RB raises the chance of success immensely.
So lets look at Lions history. When were the last times the Detroit Lions had an offense that scared defenses? In 2013 the Lions signed Reggie Bush and in the first half of the season, the offense was very strong. Stafford put up elite numbers in the first 8 games that year. I have placed my beliefs on why the Lions actually collapsed in the Stafford article, but the fact remains. In the first half, the offense was very strong and it was the first year we had Bush in the back field. Then in 2011 when Stafford put up elite numbers again and the Lions made the playoffs. Who was their RB in most of 2011? Jahvid Best, a running back with elite speed who forced defenses to worry about him. And the time before that? Way back before the turn of the century when they had the phenomenal Barry Sanders. When the Lions have had a RB who was consider to be a real home run threat, they have had their best offensive years. They have not had a great offensive year without one.
Last year the Lions faced fewer blitzes than all but maybe one other team. Defenses did not bother blitzing them. Defenses did not bother adding more players in the box and instead opted to drop more players into pass protection. So Bell had a slightly better than average year while facing fewer defenders in the box, meanwhile Stafford had extra defenders to search through to find open receivers. So without changing anything on the offense except to take out the slow powerful RB in Bell, and adding a #1 RB with real elite speed, what would happen? Defenses did not fear Bell. They knew that if Bell broke through into the second tier, they would still tackle him before he could do any real damage. But with real speed back there, they have to think differently. No defense wants to even imagine getting burnt by a long play. If they see a real threat in the backfield, they will bring more defenders in closer. This in turn, opens up the passing game because there are fewer players covering. Even if you added another O-lineman, you wont have this effect on a defense. Add a real home run threat and it changes everything!
I have heard it said over and over again. The 2015 draft is loaded with good RBs. In recent years there have been no running backs coming out of college who were real #1 RBs. This year Gurley and Gordon are named by most to be the best of the best in RBs to come out in the draft. If one of them are available, it would greatly benefit the Lions to take him. They can still draft the Corner Back and Lineman in rounds two or three. Though it may benefit them more to trade down and acquire a pick in the third round, if the Lions drafted the top #1 type of RB in the first round, it would still be a very smart move.
Do not let the myth of the RB by committee scare you. Only half of the teams use the committee and I believe most of them do it only because they simply do not have the RB who is good enough. Yet, with the #1 RB approach and the RB by Committee approach being split down the middle, the numbers supports that the #1 RB teams will have more offensive success.
Friday, April 3, 2015
Monday, March 23, 2015
Analyzing Detroit Lions General Manager Martin Mayew
Go to any Detroit Lions forum, Comment section, or blog and you will find those who hate him. Well, except this blog of course. Its hard to find haters or lovers when there are no readers.
The most common reasons for hating Mayhew as the GM for the Lions are...
1) He was part of the Millen crew who gave us the only team to ever go an entire season without a win.
2) He mismanaged the contracts of Suh, Stafford and Calvin Johnson.
3) He did not sign any free agents in 2012 after they made the playoffs.
4) He draft Eric Ebron when he had two decent tight ends on the team and had many other greater needs.
I thought I would address these things....
1) There is not one shred of evidence that Millen followed any of Mayhew's advice. Yet there are many in the football world who will say that Matt Millen had an ego problem and would not listen to others. He always did things his own way. There is also the evidence that Millen never listened to anything Mayhew said, because under Millen, the Lions continually got worse and under Mayhew, the Lions have become much better.
2) First off, it is not Mayhews responsibility to work the contracts, but I will admit, he must have to okay them. However, the #1 responsibility of a GM is to supply his coaches with the most talented team he can field to give his coaches the best chance of winning a Superbowl. If the Lions had not restructured the contracts of Suh and the others, they would never have had the money to sign such free agents as Glover Quinn, Stephen Tulloch, James Ihedigbo, and others. To not restructure those contracts he would have been stating that he was giving up on the next season or two while those contracts ran out, so he could possibly lose his best players to free agency. Then we would have been stuck with another team as talented as what Matt Millen gave us.
3) Seriously? You will complain that he didn't try to add players in 2012, but you would want him to not restructure contracts and sign free agents? You hate Mayhew for not signing free agents, but you hate him because he freed up money so he could sign some. Make up your freaking mind already!
4) I don't like the Ebron pick. You don't like the Ebron pick. My dog doesn't like the Ebron pick. But the fact still remains, you cannot name a player a bust after his rookie season. Most players much less tight ends, need a year to develop in the NFL. Lets wait and see what he does this year before you say the pick was stupid.
Now lets move on with a real look at Martin Mayhew.
In 2008, Martin Mayhew took over the worst team to ever play in the NFL. None of the good coaches really wanted the job at that point. Free Agents didn't want to come to the cesspit called the Detroit Lions. The fact is, Mayhew took over what was arguably the most daunting task ever taken on by a general manager. To raise the Detroit Lions from the depths of ruin. He hired a first time head coach in Jim Schwartz and hit free agency signing players like Larry Foote.
Within three years, the Lions had enough talent to win 10 games, and make the playoffs. Considering where they came from, that was an amazingly quick turn around. Unfortunately, Jim Schwartz was not as good of a coach as everyone had hoped. His schemes lived off of the big play. Several times in 2011, the Lions came from behind in the fourth quarter to win games. I remember listening to his post game interview one week late in the season when a reporter asked him about the come from behind victories, and wanted to know what kind of adjustments they were making. He answered that they did not make any adjustments, but that it was just great players making great plays. Schwartz proved this fact in 2012 when defenses dropped two safeties back and doubled up coverage on Calvin Johnson. Having the big play taken away from them, the Lions coaches never made any adjustments to counter the defensive schemes. They continued to call the same plays they did the year before and never really got their offense going because of it. The same problem came up in 2013. The Lions offense started off strong. Stafford was looking elite. Then at mid-season, the entire team seemed to fold under. That major collapse can be attributed to the same thing, no adjustments, as two different defensive players made remarks about the Lions making it easy to beat them because they were running all the same plays. Yet, this is not a Schwartz article, but the point needed to be made. Mayhew had installed enough talent to make the Lions a playoff team, but he was stuck with a coach who did not know how to win with the talent. That was proven when in 2014, Jim Caldwell to virtually the same players to 11 victories and a playoff appearance.
In his time as the Lions GM, Mayhew has taken a team almost void of talent and made them a playoff contender. When his coach proved to be inept, he fired him and hired a proven coach.
But there is yet one more reason so many fans hate Martin Mayhew as the GM for the Lions. Mayhew's history of drafting is on the sketchy side. I wont beat around the bush here. He really was not very good at all. In 2009, his first draft, he actually did pretty decent. With five picks in the first three rounds, he added Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew, Louis Delmas & Deandre Levy. Three of the four were still starting as of last year. Delmas was also starting, but for another team. But it was pretty much crash and burn after that for a few years. Basically, in the next three years, he hit with his first round picks in Suh, Fairley (arguably), and Reiff. He also got Tahir Whitehead in the 5th round of the 2012 draft. So yeah, it is understandable that people don't like Mayhew because he doesn't draft well. But if you look deeper, you find that is a bit deceiving, and he proves that by doing something most GMs are not willing to do. He recognized the drafts had been bad and hired Brian Xanders to correct it.
It turns out, contrary to what many believe, it was not that Mayhew did not know how to draft, but that the Lions scouting department were working from the stone age. Xanders set them up with computer programs, data, charts and all kinds of ways to evaluate talent. He basically brought the Lions into the 21st century. Armed with much better info to draft with, Mayhew had his best draft yet. In 2013, he added Ezekiel Ansah, Darius Slay and Larry Warford in the first three picks as well as Punter, Sam Martin in the 5th round.. He also added such depth as Devin Taylor & Theo Riddick. Then in 2014 he hadded the much alighned Eric Ebron pick, but also added Kyle Van Noy and Travis Swanson who will likely be starting this year. Other players such as Nevin Lawson, Caraun Reid, and Tj Jones should get some playing time as well.
So you have a General Manager who took the worst team in NFL history and added enough talent to get to the playoffs in three years, was wise enough to recognize a major flaw in the talent evaluating process and have it addressed, and had the nerve as well as wisdom to fire a coach who was failing and add a good coach in his place. You hate him because he was part of the Millen crew who ruined the Lions? Well he has rebuilt the Lions. You hated him for being so bad at drafting? Well he addressed the evaluation process and has had a couple strong drafts in a row. You hate him for bungling contracts, but he has also added talent and improved that talent even with the large contracts. You hated him for hiring a coach with an ego and could not win with talent? He fired that coach and added a coach who can win. Hate Mayhew for losing Ndamukong Suh? He replaced him with another top-5 defensive tackle in the NFL. For every reason we have to hate Mayhew, if you open your eyes and look at it, you will find he has addressed that same problem. Since he took over, Martin Mayhew has steadily improved and addressed not only the teams weaknesses, but his own. The only thing he has yet to do is win in the playoffs and get to a Superbowl. I have no doubt he will address those things as well.
If you still dont believe he has done well? Try looking at the starting rosters of the team he took over and last years, as well as possibly this years roster.
The most common reasons for hating Mayhew as the GM for the Lions are...
1) He was part of the Millen crew who gave us the only team to ever go an entire season without a win.
2) He mismanaged the contracts of Suh, Stafford and Calvin Johnson.
3) He did not sign any free agents in 2012 after they made the playoffs.
4) He draft Eric Ebron when he had two decent tight ends on the team and had many other greater needs.
I thought I would address these things....
1) There is not one shred of evidence that Millen followed any of Mayhew's advice. Yet there are many in the football world who will say that Matt Millen had an ego problem and would not listen to others. He always did things his own way. There is also the evidence that Millen never listened to anything Mayhew said, because under Millen, the Lions continually got worse and under Mayhew, the Lions have become much better.
2) First off, it is not Mayhews responsibility to work the contracts, but I will admit, he must have to okay them. However, the #1 responsibility of a GM is to supply his coaches with the most talented team he can field to give his coaches the best chance of winning a Superbowl. If the Lions had not restructured the contracts of Suh and the others, they would never have had the money to sign such free agents as Glover Quinn, Stephen Tulloch, James Ihedigbo, and others. To not restructure those contracts he would have been stating that he was giving up on the next season or two while those contracts ran out, so he could possibly lose his best players to free agency. Then we would have been stuck with another team as talented as what Matt Millen gave us.
3) Seriously? You will complain that he didn't try to add players in 2012, but you would want him to not restructure contracts and sign free agents? You hate Mayhew for not signing free agents, but you hate him because he freed up money so he could sign some. Make up your freaking mind already!
4) I don't like the Ebron pick. You don't like the Ebron pick. My dog doesn't like the Ebron pick. But the fact still remains, you cannot name a player a bust after his rookie season. Most players much less tight ends, need a year to develop in the NFL. Lets wait and see what he does this year before you say the pick was stupid.
Now lets move on with a real look at Martin Mayhew.
In 2008, Martin Mayhew took over the worst team to ever play in the NFL. None of the good coaches really wanted the job at that point. Free Agents didn't want to come to the cesspit called the Detroit Lions. The fact is, Mayhew took over what was arguably the most daunting task ever taken on by a general manager. To raise the Detroit Lions from the depths of ruin. He hired a first time head coach in Jim Schwartz and hit free agency signing players like Larry Foote.
Within three years, the Lions had enough talent to win 10 games, and make the playoffs. Considering where they came from, that was an amazingly quick turn around. Unfortunately, Jim Schwartz was not as good of a coach as everyone had hoped. His schemes lived off of the big play. Several times in 2011, the Lions came from behind in the fourth quarter to win games. I remember listening to his post game interview one week late in the season when a reporter asked him about the come from behind victories, and wanted to know what kind of adjustments they were making. He answered that they did not make any adjustments, but that it was just great players making great plays. Schwartz proved this fact in 2012 when defenses dropped two safeties back and doubled up coverage on Calvin Johnson. Having the big play taken away from them, the Lions coaches never made any adjustments to counter the defensive schemes. They continued to call the same plays they did the year before and never really got their offense going because of it. The same problem came up in 2013. The Lions offense started off strong. Stafford was looking elite. Then at mid-season, the entire team seemed to fold under. That major collapse can be attributed to the same thing, no adjustments, as two different defensive players made remarks about the Lions making it easy to beat them because they were running all the same plays. Yet, this is not a Schwartz article, but the point needed to be made. Mayhew had installed enough talent to make the Lions a playoff team, but he was stuck with a coach who did not know how to win with the talent. That was proven when in 2014, Jim Caldwell to virtually the same players to 11 victories and a playoff appearance.
In his time as the Lions GM, Mayhew has taken a team almost void of talent and made them a playoff contender. When his coach proved to be inept, he fired him and hired a proven coach.
But there is yet one more reason so many fans hate Martin Mayhew as the GM for the Lions. Mayhew's history of drafting is on the sketchy side. I wont beat around the bush here. He really was not very good at all. In 2009, his first draft, he actually did pretty decent. With five picks in the first three rounds, he added Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew, Louis Delmas & Deandre Levy. Three of the four were still starting as of last year. Delmas was also starting, but for another team. But it was pretty much crash and burn after that for a few years. Basically, in the next three years, he hit with his first round picks in Suh, Fairley (arguably), and Reiff. He also got Tahir Whitehead in the 5th round of the 2012 draft. So yeah, it is understandable that people don't like Mayhew because he doesn't draft well. But if you look deeper, you find that is a bit deceiving, and he proves that by doing something most GMs are not willing to do. He recognized the drafts had been bad and hired Brian Xanders to correct it.
It turns out, contrary to what many believe, it was not that Mayhew did not know how to draft, but that the Lions scouting department were working from the stone age. Xanders set them up with computer programs, data, charts and all kinds of ways to evaluate talent. He basically brought the Lions into the 21st century. Armed with much better info to draft with, Mayhew had his best draft yet. In 2013, he added Ezekiel Ansah, Darius Slay and Larry Warford in the first three picks as well as Punter, Sam Martin in the 5th round.. He also added such depth as Devin Taylor & Theo Riddick. Then in 2014 he hadded the much alighned Eric Ebron pick, but also added Kyle Van Noy and Travis Swanson who will likely be starting this year. Other players such as Nevin Lawson, Caraun Reid, and Tj Jones should get some playing time as well.
So you have a General Manager who took the worst team in NFL history and added enough talent to get to the playoffs in three years, was wise enough to recognize a major flaw in the talent evaluating process and have it addressed, and had the nerve as well as wisdom to fire a coach who was failing and add a good coach in his place. You hate him because he was part of the Millen crew who ruined the Lions? Well he has rebuilt the Lions. You hated him for being so bad at drafting? Well he addressed the evaluation process and has had a couple strong drafts in a row. You hate him for bungling contracts, but he has also added talent and improved that talent even with the large contracts. You hated him for hiring a coach with an ego and could not win with talent? He fired that coach and added a coach who can win. Hate Mayhew for losing Ndamukong Suh? He replaced him with another top-5 defensive tackle in the NFL. For every reason we have to hate Mayhew, if you open your eyes and look at it, you will find he has addressed that same problem. Since he took over, Martin Mayhew has steadily improved and addressed not only the teams weaknesses, but his own. The only thing he has yet to do is win in the playoffs and get to a Superbowl. I have no doubt he will address those things as well.
If you still dont believe he has done well? Try looking at the starting rosters of the team he took over and last years, as well as possibly this years roster.
 |
| Starting rosters for the Detroit Lions under Mayhew |
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Can the Detroit Lions Be as Good as Last Year.... or Better?
Can the Detroit Lions win 11 games again next year? So many are saying they see 4 to 6 wins only. Let me assure you, the Lions not only can win 11 games next year, but there is plenty of reason to believe they will.
So they lost the big nasty Ndamukong Suh. That has to definitely mean the defense will take a huge hit right? Not necessarily. Look, losing Suh hurt a lot only if you cant replace him. The Lions turned around and did what nobody thought they could do. They replaced him. Not with some scrub, but with a top-5 defensive tackle who has three all-pro's under his belt. Is Haloti Ngata as good as Suh? No! But he sure isnt that far away. He may even be a better run stuffer than Suh, but just not as good as getting after the quarterback. But all that means is you need to get after the quarterback a different way. Better defensive end play is one way. Blitzing more is another. Will the Lions defense be #2 again this coming year? Likely not, but it could still end up top-10 at worse, and maybe even top-5.
So how can they get better if their defense will be worse? Right? The answer to that is Offense!
I know there is a lot of people who think the Lions offense is really as bad as it looked last year. They are wrong! Very wrong! Look, there was basically two reasons the offense did not look good last year. And neither has to do with Stafford or Ebron.
1) Scheme - The line was supposed to be a good one last year, but what wasn't put out in public very loudly was that they changed it into a zone blocking line. This is a completely different way of blocking and it takes some time for each player to get used to it. It takes longer for the entire line to gel.
2) Injuries - Looking first at the offensive line, Waddle missed 4 games and Warford missed three games. Reiff missed a game, Raiola was suspended a game, and Sims was slow getting healthy after off-season surgery. Often players were out there while still fighting their injuries. This made the gel period even slower. Calvin Johnson missed three games and was nothing more than a decoy in two others. The Tight-Ends, which this offensive scheme is based around, were oft injured as well. At one point all three tight ends were injured and the Lions had to bring up players from the practice squad. Then of course there was Reggie Bush who was not very healthy all year.
I know. You cant always keep using excuses for them right? The way I believe it, you dont make up excuses for a player or a team, but if the excuse is there and it is legitimate, you need to consider it. The fact is, the offense was learning a new scheme last year. Not any scheme, but one that is widely considered to be one of the most difficult in the NFL. Getting all 11 guys on the same page takes time as it is, but when many of the key players are often injured, it makes getting the scheme down almost impossible. If this offensive unit is healthy this year, it will be much better by default. Add the fact they will have another off-season and preseason to get it together, there is every reason to believe they will be a better unit this year.
I am completely expecting this offense to be vastly improved this year. They should be more healthy, they will have a year of this system under their belt, and certain players will improve. Namely, Ebron. Many think he is already a bust, but not many TEs come into the NFL and look real good. It usually takes a year for them to develop and get acclimated to the NFL pace.
On top of that, there is a high chance the Lions add a good fast running back in the mix from the draft. Joique Bell is a decent RB, but the simple truth is, he just isnt very fast. Defenses did not fear him nor Bush last year. The Lions were one of the least blitzed against teams in the NFL. That means teams were dropping extra men into coverage rather than sending them in. That in turn made Stafford try to find an open WR among more defenders. If the Lions add a RB with real speed, he will force defenses to worry about giving up the big gains. They will be forced to bring Safeties in closer to the line and/or put more players in the box to stop the run. That opens WRs and makes life much easier in the pass game.
So all in all, we should have a defense that is a little worse, but an offense that is far better. Even if you believe the schedule is a lot harder this year, the Lions are likely to be just as good as last year and could actually be better.
So they lost the big nasty Ndamukong Suh. That has to definitely mean the defense will take a huge hit right? Not necessarily. Look, losing Suh hurt a lot only if you cant replace him. The Lions turned around and did what nobody thought they could do. They replaced him. Not with some scrub, but with a top-5 defensive tackle who has three all-pro's under his belt. Is Haloti Ngata as good as Suh? No! But he sure isnt that far away. He may even be a better run stuffer than Suh, but just not as good as getting after the quarterback. But all that means is you need to get after the quarterback a different way. Better defensive end play is one way. Blitzing more is another. Will the Lions defense be #2 again this coming year? Likely not, but it could still end up top-10 at worse, and maybe even top-5.
So how can they get better if their defense will be worse? Right? The answer to that is Offense!
I know there is a lot of people who think the Lions offense is really as bad as it looked last year. They are wrong! Very wrong! Look, there was basically two reasons the offense did not look good last year. And neither has to do with Stafford or Ebron.
1) Scheme - The line was supposed to be a good one last year, but what wasn't put out in public very loudly was that they changed it into a zone blocking line. This is a completely different way of blocking and it takes some time for each player to get used to it. It takes longer for the entire line to gel.
2) Injuries - Looking first at the offensive line, Waddle missed 4 games and Warford missed three games. Reiff missed a game, Raiola was suspended a game, and Sims was slow getting healthy after off-season surgery. Often players were out there while still fighting their injuries. This made the gel period even slower. Calvin Johnson missed three games and was nothing more than a decoy in two others. The Tight-Ends, which this offensive scheme is based around, were oft injured as well. At one point all three tight ends were injured and the Lions had to bring up players from the practice squad. Then of course there was Reggie Bush who was not very healthy all year.
I know. You cant always keep using excuses for them right? The way I believe it, you dont make up excuses for a player or a team, but if the excuse is there and it is legitimate, you need to consider it. The fact is, the offense was learning a new scheme last year. Not any scheme, but one that is widely considered to be one of the most difficult in the NFL. Getting all 11 guys on the same page takes time as it is, but when many of the key players are often injured, it makes getting the scheme down almost impossible. If this offensive unit is healthy this year, it will be much better by default. Add the fact they will have another off-season and preseason to get it together, there is every reason to believe they will be a better unit this year.
I am completely expecting this offense to be vastly improved this year. They should be more healthy, they will have a year of this system under their belt, and certain players will improve. Namely, Ebron. Many think he is already a bust, but not many TEs come into the NFL and look real good. It usually takes a year for them to develop and get acclimated to the NFL pace.
On top of that, there is a high chance the Lions add a good fast running back in the mix from the draft. Joique Bell is a decent RB, but the simple truth is, he just isnt very fast. Defenses did not fear him nor Bush last year. The Lions were one of the least blitzed against teams in the NFL. That means teams were dropping extra men into coverage rather than sending them in. That in turn made Stafford try to find an open WR among more defenders. If the Lions add a RB with real speed, he will force defenses to worry about giving up the big gains. They will be forced to bring Safeties in closer to the line and/or put more players in the box to stop the run. That opens WRs and makes life much easier in the pass game.
So all in all, we should have a defense that is a little worse, but an offense that is far better. Even if you believe the schedule is a lot harder this year, the Lions are likely to be just as good as last year and could actually be better.
Sunday, March 15, 2015
Where the Detroit Lions Sit After Losing Suh
Many believe Suh wanted to leave all along. That he never wanted to stay with the Lions. The fact is however, nobody knows what he was thinking. We can only theorize on how he felt, and of course, when a top player leaves a team, it is only natural to believe he wanted to leave. It is a way of rationalizing the loss. It is still a theory though.
The Detroit Free Press had an exclusive interview with Ndomukong Suh and he finally opened up and spoke about what had happened. Here is the link.... Ndamukong Suh Interview. Basically, it comes down to this. Ndamukong Suh says he never wanted to leave. That he had been expecting to sign with the Lions again. That Miami just offered him too good of a deal and he couldnt refuse it.
After reading the article, here is my belief. Mayhew was offering Suh a very strong deal. He did not believe any team would top it by much. Suh knew what the Lions would offer and didnt think any team would top it by much. So both sides were expecting the Lions would re-sign Suh. This would explain why Mayhew never was willing to trade Suh in the past and why they did not hit him with the franchise tag. They completely expected that whatever any team offered him, the Lions would be able to top. Then Miami threw an offer that surprised the entire NFL world. Too much for even the Lions to match. To much for Suh to refuse. So the Lions were suddenly without their top defensive player and needing to find a way to replace him.
Many thought the Lions would sign Fairley if they lost Suh, but instead they said they would not chase after him. Instead they thought on their feet and pulled a shocking move of their own. They handed the Ravens their 4th round and 5th round pick, for the Raven's 7th round pick and DT - Haloti Ngata. As quick as that, they had replaced Suh with another DT who may not be as good, but is still a top end DT. The problem now however, is the Lions still have several positions to address and only three draft picks worth mentioning.
Here are the positions the Lions still need to address (at the time of writing this).
LG -- With Sims still waiting on offers in free agency, the Lions are in need of a Left Guard. The last I heard, they were talking to Justin Blalock, but he reportedly visited the Lions and left town without a deal. I am fully expecting them to bring back Rob Sims for one more year. Many fans do not like him, but last year he was coming off of surgery and it took over half a year for him to get back into game shape.
RB -- I like Bell as a RB, but lets face the facts, he did not face many in the box last year and he still didnt have a great year. Decent maybe, but not great. The Lions need a RB with real speed. Speed that will force defenses to bring more men into the box to stop him. Speed that will bring the safeties in closer rather than sitting deep and taking the big play away. Enough speed that will help open the passing game again.
#3 WR -- They have Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, but that is it. Unless you are confident Ebron will come to life this year, they only have two solid receivers. With Calvin stretching one side of the field out, and Tate causing havoc in the middle of the field, what the Lions need is a WR with elite speed to pull safeties with him down field and open the others up.
DT -- Ngata is a great pickup, but the Lions need another good DT to help stop the run and push the middle of the pocket back at the QB. I think they will end up re-signing Moseley, but they would then have two older DTs and will need a third one sometime soon to start developing.
DE -- This is likely the least of their needs, but a good DE living across from Ansah would help immensely. Especially with Ngata in the middle now. Ngata is a great run stuffer, but he is not as good in pass rushing. Without Suh putting so much pressure on QBs from the DT spot, the Lions need more out of their Ends.
CB -- They still have Slay but Mathis has become a free agent. It is so important to have two good CBs in todays NFL, that this may be the most important position of all to address. I expect them to bring back Mathis, but they still need another in the draft this year. It usually takes a CB a year to develop in the NFL.Mathis is getting older and it could blow an entire season if Mathis finally loses his touch and the Lions dont have another CB developing. You can get by in the NFL with one good and one average DT. With an average DE, LB or even Safety. If there is one position in the NFL a team cannot get by with an average player, it is cornerback. You must have two good CBs or the NFL QBs will rip you apart.
Here are the players I see the Lions bringing back.
LG - Sims
DT - C.J.Moseley
DE - George Johnson
CB - Rashean Mathis
That leaves them with a CB (developing), RB, #3 WR, OL, & DT (developing) the Lions will still need to add and not having a 4th or 5th round pick in the draft. I think they will add a RB and a CB, and one player in the trenches, either offensive or defensive, with the first three rounds. This will not fill all of their needs, but it will only leave their least important needs.
The Detroit Free Press had an exclusive interview with Ndomukong Suh and he finally opened up and spoke about what had happened. Here is the link.... Ndamukong Suh Interview. Basically, it comes down to this. Ndamukong Suh says he never wanted to leave. That he had been expecting to sign with the Lions again. That Miami just offered him too good of a deal and he couldnt refuse it.
After reading the article, here is my belief. Mayhew was offering Suh a very strong deal. He did not believe any team would top it by much. Suh knew what the Lions would offer and didnt think any team would top it by much. So both sides were expecting the Lions would re-sign Suh. This would explain why Mayhew never was willing to trade Suh in the past and why they did not hit him with the franchise tag. They completely expected that whatever any team offered him, the Lions would be able to top. Then Miami threw an offer that surprised the entire NFL world. Too much for even the Lions to match. To much for Suh to refuse. So the Lions were suddenly without their top defensive player and needing to find a way to replace him.
Many thought the Lions would sign Fairley if they lost Suh, but instead they said they would not chase after him. Instead they thought on their feet and pulled a shocking move of their own. They handed the Ravens their 4th round and 5th round pick, for the Raven's 7th round pick and DT - Haloti Ngata. As quick as that, they had replaced Suh with another DT who may not be as good, but is still a top end DT. The problem now however, is the Lions still have several positions to address and only three draft picks worth mentioning.
Here are the positions the Lions still need to address (at the time of writing this).
LG -- With Sims still waiting on offers in free agency, the Lions are in need of a Left Guard. The last I heard, they were talking to Justin Blalock, but he reportedly visited the Lions and left town without a deal. I am fully expecting them to bring back Rob Sims for one more year. Many fans do not like him, but last year he was coming off of surgery and it took over half a year for him to get back into game shape.
RB -- I like Bell as a RB, but lets face the facts, he did not face many in the box last year and he still didnt have a great year. Decent maybe, but not great. The Lions need a RB with real speed. Speed that will force defenses to bring more men into the box to stop him. Speed that will bring the safeties in closer rather than sitting deep and taking the big play away. Enough speed that will help open the passing game again.
#3 WR -- They have Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, but that is it. Unless you are confident Ebron will come to life this year, they only have two solid receivers. With Calvin stretching one side of the field out, and Tate causing havoc in the middle of the field, what the Lions need is a WR with elite speed to pull safeties with him down field and open the others up.
DT -- Ngata is a great pickup, but the Lions need another good DT to help stop the run and push the middle of the pocket back at the QB. I think they will end up re-signing Moseley, but they would then have two older DTs and will need a third one sometime soon to start developing.
DE -- This is likely the least of their needs, but a good DE living across from Ansah would help immensely. Especially with Ngata in the middle now. Ngata is a great run stuffer, but he is not as good in pass rushing. Without Suh putting so much pressure on QBs from the DT spot, the Lions need more out of their Ends.
CB -- They still have Slay but Mathis has become a free agent. It is so important to have two good CBs in todays NFL, that this may be the most important position of all to address. I expect them to bring back Mathis, but they still need another in the draft this year. It usually takes a CB a year to develop in the NFL.Mathis is getting older and it could blow an entire season if Mathis finally loses his touch and the Lions dont have another CB developing. You can get by in the NFL with one good and one average DT. With an average DE, LB or even Safety. If there is one position in the NFL a team cannot get by with an average player, it is cornerback. You must have two good CBs or the NFL QBs will rip you apart.
Here are the players I see the Lions bringing back.
LG - Sims
DT - C.J.Moseley
DE - George Johnson
CB - Rashean Mathis
That leaves them with a CB (developing), RB, #3 WR, OL, & DT (developing) the Lions will still need to add and not having a 4th or 5th round pick in the draft. I think they will add a RB and a CB, and one player in the trenches, either offensive or defensive, with the first three rounds. This will not fill all of their needs, but it will only leave their least important needs.
Sunday, February 15, 2015
How Good is the Real Matthew Stafford?
Go to any forum or discussion on the Detroit Lions on-line, and you will likely find a debate on the Lions QB mixed in there as well. Is Matthew Stafford over-rated (and over paid) as an NFL quarterback? Is he a good quarterback in a bad situation? That is a debate that only a Superbowl will ever decide.
One thing I have noticed in every discussion, debate, or argument (whichever you like calling them), is that every fan has his theories. Theories are a very important part of these discussions, but they need to be backed up by facts. So I want to go back and look at Matthew Stafford’s career, list his stats and add my own theories.
As we all know, Stafford was drafted #1 overall, in the 2009 NFL Draft by our beloved Detroit Lions. He was expected to be the next great thing and instead, he only started 13 games in his first two years due to injuries. For the most part, he suffered two dislocated shoulders (same shoulder). So his career really didn’t take off until his third season in 2011.
2011 -- It was the year we all had been waiting for. Stafford had surgery on his shoulder in the off-season and to the knowledge of most, he was healthy for the first full season of his career. Some would say he was great that year if not for the 16 picks he threw. But the truth is, if you remember, Stafford was not healthy the entire season. In the middle of the season, Stafford hit his hand on a helmet and broke a finger on his throwing hand. It took him the bye-week and four games to get healthy again.
Stats for four games Stafford was playing with the broken finger…
Comp% 65.96% - 1,348 yards - 8 TDs - 10 Picks with a 1-3 win loss record.
In the 10 games Stafford was healthy in 2011 …..
Comp% 62.53% - 3,690 yards - 33 TDs - 6 Picks with a 9-3 win loss record.
Any way you look at those numbers, Matthew Stafford put up elite stats in 2011 while he was healthy. He took the Lions to their first playoff game in over a decade. Unfortunately, the win-loss record of 10-6 for the Lions was a deceiving stat. The team was not as good as it portrayed itself to be. The Lions did not have a good running game and the offense was based on the big play. The Scott Linehan offense was not built to methodically move the ball down the field and score, but it was built to beat teams with big plays. That allowed defenses to study their game and prepare for them in the off-season. One thing to note here, is that after the Lions had made several come from behind wins, Jim Schwartz was asked about what adjustments they were making at half time for the Lions to keep coming back in games. His answer… “We don’t make adjustments. We just let great players make great plays.” This was the beginning to me not being his fan, and as the season continued, I saw just how flawed they were. After the year was over, many fans were expecting the Lions to win 11+ games the next year. I started saying how I expected them to win 8 or 9 games tops and it would not surprise me if they were worse.
2012 -- The Lions were definitely worse, as they only won 4 games and Matthew Stafford ended up looking average. Staying healthy for the entire season, he only completed 59.83% of his passes. Though he threw for 4,967 yards, he only threw 20 TDs and had another 17 picked off. So why the drop off?
In the first weeks of the season it became apparent that defensive coordinators had done their homework, as they dropped two safeties deep and doubled up on Calvin Johnson. Essentially, teams took away the Lions big play and forced them to methodically move the ball down the field. Something they were not built to do. As the season continued, it became evident that Schwartz and Linehan did not have an answer for how defenses were trying to stop them. Simply put, the Detroit Lions coaches did not make any adjustments again.
After only 4 wins in 2012, many people were calling for another bad year. I believed they would win 6 games. Though I had no faith in the coaches anymore, I believed the Lions had enough talent to win more games.
2013 -- The Lions made a move that made a big difference. They brought in Reggie Bush to be the RB. Bush had a reputation as a playmaker. A runningback with speed enough to make defenses pay. This paid off, as defenses were no longer able to drop back and play deep, taking away the big play, without taking a chance Bush would take the next carry for a TD. This forced teams to play a more honest defense and Stafford once again was putting up elite numbers.
In the first 8 games of 2013, Stafford's stats were….
Comp% 62.43% - 2,617 yards - 16 TDs - 6 Picks with a 5-3 win loss record.
Then Stafford seemed to fall apart as the next 8 games were….
Comp% 54.05% - 2,033 yards - 13 TDs - 13 Picks with a 2-6 win loss record.
Obviously there was a dramatic drop off, but you have to ask yourself, why? If Stafford was simply an inconsistent quarterback, he would have a good game followed by a couple bad games, then a good game or two followed by more bad games, etc… His season was far too consistent (great for 8 games and bad for 8 games) to accept it as simple inconsistency. So what caused such a big drop off?
Unfortunately, believe it or not, this is also a case of the coaches not making adjustments. Not once, but twice in the second half, opposing players came out and explained why they were able to come back and beat the Lions. Both players eluded to the fact that Lions were running the same plays in the second half of the year as the first half, and the second half of games as they did in the first half of games. Now, if only one player would have said that, I would have shrugged it off. But the knowledge that Jim Schwartz himself had said in 2011 that they didn’t make adjustments, and the fact that they never made adjustments to counter what defenses were doing in 2012, and then to have a second player say something very similar? This made it a clear case in my opinion. The coaches were calling the same ole plays and defensive players were recognizing them on the field.
Now of course some would say that shouldn’t make a team completely collapse. I would beg to differ. These are professional athletes, but they are human. When a receiver is finding there is no room to run because the defensive backs are following their routes so well, they will try to do too much. They will tend to start turning to run before securing the catch. That usually ends up with a lot more dropped passes. If the receivers are never getting open and the team starts losing, quarterbacks will start trying to force passes into tighter windows instead of throwing the ball away or taking a sack. This leads to more interceptions. Losing will force running backs to try pushing for the extra yards rather than securing the ball with two arms when he is tackled. When a player, no matter how great the player is, is always seeing tough times and put into too much pressure too often, they will start to make mistakes. This is why the Detroit Lions fell apart. IF it was just Matthew Stafford who fell apart, I would have to toss this theory out the window and blame the quarterback. But it wasn’t just Stafford. He was throwing passes he shouldn’t and making wild throws, but receivers and running backs were also dropping passes and fumbling the ball a lot. When an entire team falls apart, you cant blame one player, but you have to look for a reason why an entire team would collapse. That fits the fact that defenders were recognizing plays and making life impossible; because the coaches once again either refused, or did not have the imagination to make adjustments.
One can find reasons to say Stafford is not a very good quarterback if they want, but there are arguments to be made on why those reasons cant be right. If he simply wasn’t very good, he would not have had the long stretches (10 games in 2011 and 8 games in 2013) when he was elite. Bad quarterbacks can have great games. Even a few great games, but they don’t have that many games of being elite and then that many games of being average. Matthew Stafford’s streaks are more in the line of something other than his own abilities causing him to falter.
What about 2014 then? Stafford was not great in 2014 was he? Yet he didn’t have Schwartz to hurt him then! This is true, but there was a lot more to hold Stafford down in 2014 than bad coaches. First, there was the simple fact that the entire team was learning a new scheme and one of the most difficult playbooks in the NFL. It takes time for an entire offense to learn it and gel together in a scheme. Secondly, there is the issue with all of the injuries to the offensive line. By the time the season ended in the excruciating game in Dallas, the Lions offensive Line was down to two third string linemen on the right side of the line. When a line cannot give the QB time to find an open WR, and the receivers time to get open, the offense is not going to move the ball. Third, there is the fact that Reggie Bush was either hurt or simply not fast enough anymore. He did not pose enough of a threat to defenses and so they dropped the safeties back again and blitzed less against the Lions than almost all other teams, instead dropping players into coverage to make it tougher for Stafford.
To make things clear, 2014 was not a problem with Stafford, but a collage of problems that made the season almost impossible for Stafford. He was forced to dump the ball off a lot while under pressure and was not able to go down field much. It was a season where you simply cannot judge any one player over. In the past, when placed in a position to succeed, Stafford has indeed put up elite numbers. He will again.
Many fans want to hate Stafford and wont look at things the way I pointed them out in this article. So there is one other thing you can do to judge him. There is no quarterback to ever play in the NFL who can do it all by himself. Every great QB needs 3 of the following things.
1) Good receivers.
2) Good Play calling.
3) Good protection.
4) a decent running game.
All of your best QBs have three of those things. But name a time when Stafford has had three of them in one season. Maybe the 2011 season, but if then, it only fits my arguments.
As we all know, Stafford was drafted #1 overall, in the 2009 NFL Draft by our beloved Detroit Lions. He was expected to be the next great thing and instead, he only started 13 games in his first two years due to injuries. For the most part, he suffered two dislocated shoulders (same shoulder). So his career really didn’t take off until his third season in 2011.
2011 -- It was the year we all had been waiting for. Stafford had surgery on his shoulder in the off-season and to the knowledge of most, he was healthy for the first full season of his career. Some would say he was great that year if not for the 16 picks he threw. But the truth is, if you remember, Stafford was not healthy the entire season. In the middle of the season, Stafford hit his hand on a helmet and broke a finger on his throwing hand. It took him the bye-week and four games to get healthy again.
Stats for four games Stafford was playing with the broken finger…
Comp% 65.96% - 1,348 yards - 8 TDs - 10 Picks with a 1-3 win loss record.
In the 10 games Stafford was healthy in 2011 …..
Comp% 62.53% - 3,690 yards - 33 TDs - 6 Picks with a 9-3 win loss record.
Any way you look at those numbers, Matthew Stafford put up elite stats in 2011 while he was healthy. He took the Lions to their first playoff game in over a decade. Unfortunately, the win-loss record of 10-6 for the Lions was a deceiving stat. The team was not as good as it portrayed itself to be. The Lions did not have a good running game and the offense was based on the big play. The Scott Linehan offense was not built to methodically move the ball down the field and score, but it was built to beat teams with big plays. That allowed defenses to study their game and prepare for them in the off-season. One thing to note here, is that after the Lions had made several come from behind wins, Jim Schwartz was asked about what adjustments they were making at half time for the Lions to keep coming back in games. His answer… “We don’t make adjustments. We just let great players make great plays.” This was the beginning to me not being his fan, and as the season continued, I saw just how flawed they were. After the year was over, many fans were expecting the Lions to win 11+ games the next year. I started saying how I expected them to win 8 or 9 games tops and it would not surprise me if they were worse.
2012 -- The Lions were definitely worse, as they only won 4 games and Matthew Stafford ended up looking average. Staying healthy for the entire season, he only completed 59.83% of his passes. Though he threw for 4,967 yards, he only threw 20 TDs and had another 17 picked off. So why the drop off?
In the first weeks of the season it became apparent that defensive coordinators had done their homework, as they dropped two safeties deep and doubled up on Calvin Johnson. Essentially, teams took away the Lions big play and forced them to methodically move the ball down the field. Something they were not built to do. As the season continued, it became evident that Schwartz and Linehan did not have an answer for how defenses were trying to stop them. Simply put, the Detroit Lions coaches did not make any adjustments again.
After only 4 wins in 2012, many people were calling for another bad year. I believed they would win 6 games. Though I had no faith in the coaches anymore, I believed the Lions had enough talent to win more games.
2013 -- The Lions made a move that made a big difference. They brought in Reggie Bush to be the RB. Bush had a reputation as a playmaker. A runningback with speed enough to make defenses pay. This paid off, as defenses were no longer able to drop back and play deep, taking away the big play, without taking a chance Bush would take the next carry for a TD. This forced teams to play a more honest defense and Stafford once again was putting up elite numbers.
In the first 8 games of 2013, Stafford's stats were….
Comp% 62.43% - 2,617 yards - 16 TDs - 6 Picks with a 5-3 win loss record.
Then Stafford seemed to fall apart as the next 8 games were….
Comp% 54.05% - 2,033 yards - 13 TDs - 13 Picks with a 2-6 win loss record.
Obviously there was a dramatic drop off, but you have to ask yourself, why? If Stafford was simply an inconsistent quarterback, he would have a good game followed by a couple bad games, then a good game or two followed by more bad games, etc… His season was far too consistent (great for 8 games and bad for 8 games) to accept it as simple inconsistency. So what caused such a big drop off?
Unfortunately, believe it or not, this is also a case of the coaches not making adjustments. Not once, but twice in the second half, opposing players came out and explained why they were able to come back and beat the Lions. Both players eluded to the fact that Lions were running the same plays in the second half of the year as the first half, and the second half of games as they did in the first half of games. Now, if only one player would have said that, I would have shrugged it off. But the knowledge that Jim Schwartz himself had said in 2011 that they didn’t make adjustments, and the fact that they never made adjustments to counter what defenses were doing in 2012, and then to have a second player say something very similar? This made it a clear case in my opinion. The coaches were calling the same ole plays and defensive players were recognizing them on the field.
Now of course some would say that shouldn’t make a team completely collapse. I would beg to differ. These are professional athletes, but they are human. When a receiver is finding there is no room to run because the defensive backs are following their routes so well, they will try to do too much. They will tend to start turning to run before securing the catch. That usually ends up with a lot more dropped passes. If the receivers are never getting open and the team starts losing, quarterbacks will start trying to force passes into tighter windows instead of throwing the ball away or taking a sack. This leads to more interceptions. Losing will force running backs to try pushing for the extra yards rather than securing the ball with two arms when he is tackled. When a player, no matter how great the player is, is always seeing tough times and put into too much pressure too often, they will start to make mistakes. This is why the Detroit Lions fell apart. IF it was just Matthew Stafford who fell apart, I would have to toss this theory out the window and blame the quarterback. But it wasn’t just Stafford. He was throwing passes he shouldn’t and making wild throws, but receivers and running backs were also dropping passes and fumbling the ball a lot. When an entire team falls apart, you cant blame one player, but you have to look for a reason why an entire team would collapse. That fits the fact that defenders were recognizing plays and making life impossible; because the coaches once again either refused, or did not have the imagination to make adjustments.
One can find reasons to say Stafford is not a very good quarterback if they want, but there are arguments to be made on why those reasons cant be right. If he simply wasn’t very good, he would not have had the long stretches (10 games in 2011 and 8 games in 2013) when he was elite. Bad quarterbacks can have great games. Even a few great games, but they don’t have that many games of being elite and then that many games of being average. Matthew Stafford’s streaks are more in the line of something other than his own abilities causing him to falter.
What about 2014 then? Stafford was not great in 2014 was he? Yet he didn’t have Schwartz to hurt him then! This is true, but there was a lot more to hold Stafford down in 2014 than bad coaches. First, there was the simple fact that the entire team was learning a new scheme and one of the most difficult playbooks in the NFL. It takes time for an entire offense to learn it and gel together in a scheme. Secondly, there is the issue with all of the injuries to the offensive line. By the time the season ended in the excruciating game in Dallas, the Lions offensive Line was down to two third string linemen on the right side of the line. When a line cannot give the QB time to find an open WR, and the receivers time to get open, the offense is not going to move the ball. Third, there is the fact that Reggie Bush was either hurt or simply not fast enough anymore. He did not pose enough of a threat to defenses and so they dropped the safeties back again and blitzed less against the Lions than almost all other teams, instead dropping players into coverage to make it tougher for Stafford.
To make things clear, 2014 was not a problem with Stafford, but a collage of problems that made the season almost impossible for Stafford. He was forced to dump the ball off a lot while under pressure and was not able to go down field much. It was a season where you simply cannot judge any one player over. In the past, when placed in a position to succeed, Stafford has indeed put up elite numbers. He will again.
Many fans want to hate Stafford and wont look at things the way I pointed them out in this article. So there is one other thing you can do to judge him. There is no quarterback to ever play in the NFL who can do it all by himself. Every great QB needs 3 of the following things.
1) Good receivers.
2) Good Play calling.
3) Good protection.
4) a decent running game.
All of your best QBs have three of those things. But name a time when Stafford has had three of them in one season. Maybe the 2011 season, but if then, it only fits my arguments.
Tuesday, February 3, 2015
Detroit Lions are 30 to 1 Odds to Win Superbowl Next Year
The Lions finished the season with 11 wins, would likely have won the first round playoff game if not for the refs screwing them over, and somehow have the same odds of winning the Superbowl as they had at the beginning of last season. Now that's hard to imagine.
What this shows me is, the Las Vegas bookies are human. One year they are coming off of a 7 win season, have new coaches, new schemes, and new playbooks to learn. And they had the same odds of winning the Superbowl as they do coming off of 11 wins, a playoff birth, and a year under their belts with the new coaches, schemes, and playbooks. I guess those bookies bought into the "Win Now" hype tossed at us last year huh?
Some believe it is a lack of respect that they did not climb in the odds. I for one am glad of it. Because when the fellas at work go to Vegas next time, and I have them place $20 on the Lions, it could turn into $600 a year from now. I know, I know, it is crazy to think the Lions will win the Superbowl next year right? But in the grand scheme of things, how much will I miss the $20 anyway, but if that miracle should come through? I sure can use the $600 extra. In fact, every year I try to bet $10 or $20 on the Lions, just in case that Cinderella season happens. But in all honesty, this could end up being the year.
Let's play pretend for a moment here. Let us pretend that Ndamukong Suh stays in Detroit without them using the Franchise tag on the best DT in the NFL. They sign Suh to a multi-year deal and bring back Mathis for another year. Virtually, they will be keeping all of their important starting players. If that happens, they will be going forward with little chance of getting worse and every bit of talent they add will only improve them. If the offensive line can stay healthy next year, they will already be a much improved team on that side of the ball. Add one or two free agents and a decent draft? This team has become much better than they were last season. And let's face a simple fact. If they have the same defense, and the offense even becomes decent? This team can make some noise.
There is a very high probability that you will be extremely hard pressed to find another team with 30 to 1 odds or worse odds that has a better chance of winning. But the first step is signing Suh. If they sign him, they go into Free Agency looking to get better. If they lose him, they go into free agency looking to get back to where they were. Personally, I want to get better.
Within the next couple weeks, we should know what is happening with Ndamukong Suh. From there, we can take closer looks at what their next steps should be. But until then, I like the odds giving me a higher payout.
What this shows me is, the Las Vegas bookies are human. One year they are coming off of a 7 win season, have new coaches, new schemes, and new playbooks to learn. And they had the same odds of winning the Superbowl as they do coming off of 11 wins, a playoff birth, and a year under their belts with the new coaches, schemes, and playbooks. I guess those bookies bought into the "Win Now" hype tossed at us last year huh?
Some believe it is a lack of respect that they did not climb in the odds. I for one am glad of it. Because when the fellas at work go to Vegas next time, and I have them place $20 on the Lions, it could turn into $600 a year from now. I know, I know, it is crazy to think the Lions will win the Superbowl next year right? But in the grand scheme of things, how much will I miss the $20 anyway, but if that miracle should come through? I sure can use the $600 extra. In fact, every year I try to bet $10 or $20 on the Lions, just in case that Cinderella season happens. But in all honesty, this could end up being the year.
Let's play pretend for a moment here. Let us pretend that Ndamukong Suh stays in Detroit without them using the Franchise tag on the best DT in the NFL. They sign Suh to a multi-year deal and bring back Mathis for another year. Virtually, they will be keeping all of their important starting players. If that happens, they will be going forward with little chance of getting worse and every bit of talent they add will only improve them. If the offensive line can stay healthy next year, they will already be a much improved team on that side of the ball. Add one or two free agents and a decent draft? This team has become much better than they were last season. And let's face a simple fact. If they have the same defense, and the offense even becomes decent? This team can make some noise.
There is a very high probability that you will be extremely hard pressed to find another team with 30 to 1 odds or worse odds that has a better chance of winning. But the first step is signing Suh. If they sign him, they go into Free Agency looking to get better. If they lose him, they go into free agency looking to get back to where they were. Personally, I want to get better.
Within the next couple weeks, we should know what is happening with Ndamukong Suh. From there, we can take closer looks at what their next steps should be. But until then, I like the odds giving me a higher payout.
Sunday, February 1, 2015
Lions Should Sign Suh... If They Can.
Right now, I think it is a fair chance the Lions can sign Ndamukong Suh. And they should.
Suh is, simply put, the best Defensive Tackle in the NFL. In a league where the DT has always been an afterthought on the defensive line, and the Defensive End, who gets all the sacks, has been the star, the one player that Suh is often compared to in debates if he is as good as, is J.J.Watt. The best Defensive End in the NFL!
Almost every time a team has tried to run up the middle against Suh, they failed. So often in fact, that some offensive coordinators choose not to bother trying. When you can take the middle of the field away from the run game, you really hamper an offense. When it comes to taking that middle of the field away, Ndamukong Suh is the best.
No quarterback looks forward to playing opposite Suh. It takes two blockers to slow him down. They dont stop him very often. They only slow him down. When he isnt getting sacks, he is still very often in the backfield, getting pressure and often hits on the quarterbacks. He pushes the middle of the pocket back, keeping the quarterbacks from having a comfortable place to step into. This often will leave the QB with a choice between taking a sack from the outside rushers, and scrambling away.
It has been said over and over in the NFL, and there is no cliche' that is more accurate. "The Game is won in the trenches!" When you control the line of scrimmage, you win games, and Ndamukong Suh is one of the greatest at doing just that.
Often fans like to believe the Lions should let Suh walk and keep Fairley. I have even chuckled at a few comments about how Fairley is as good or better than Suh. Dont kid yourself. When Fairley went down with an injury, the common thought was that the defense would take a huge hit. Yet it never missed a step. The reason for this is because it is not that Fairley was so good, but because he looked so good playing alongside of Suh. When Cj Mosely stepped in and became the next starter, he did so seamlessly. The Lions can get another DT to play next to Suh and possibly improve the defensive line, but if they lose Suh, the line takes a harsh step backwards.
Most fans who want to let Suh go are afraid of the cash flow problems. This will only be a real problem if the Lions toss the Franchise Tag on the best DT in the NFL. The $26.9 Million that would take is just too steep a price at this time. But if they sign him to a multi-year long term deal, they can afford that. Even if it cost them 18 million this year, and I dont believe it will cost that much.
The Detroit Lions had the #2 defense last year and the best run defense overall. With good reasons to believe the offense will get better, if they want to make a push for the Superbowl, they need to keep the defense in tact. This is not impossible if Suh leaves, and if he does walk, i will go deeper into how the Lions can still succeed, but keeping the best DT in the game is by far the easiest way and surest way to go forward and not backward next year.
Suh is, simply put, the best Defensive Tackle in the NFL. In a league where the DT has always been an afterthought on the defensive line, and the Defensive End, who gets all the sacks, has been the star, the one player that Suh is often compared to in debates if he is as good as, is J.J.Watt. The best Defensive End in the NFL!
Almost every time a team has tried to run up the middle against Suh, they failed. So often in fact, that some offensive coordinators choose not to bother trying. When you can take the middle of the field away from the run game, you really hamper an offense. When it comes to taking that middle of the field away, Ndamukong Suh is the best.
No quarterback looks forward to playing opposite Suh. It takes two blockers to slow him down. They dont stop him very often. They only slow him down. When he isnt getting sacks, he is still very often in the backfield, getting pressure and often hits on the quarterbacks. He pushes the middle of the pocket back, keeping the quarterbacks from having a comfortable place to step into. This often will leave the QB with a choice between taking a sack from the outside rushers, and scrambling away.
It has been said over and over in the NFL, and there is no cliche' that is more accurate. "The Game is won in the trenches!" When you control the line of scrimmage, you win games, and Ndamukong Suh is one of the greatest at doing just that.
Often fans like to believe the Lions should let Suh walk and keep Fairley. I have even chuckled at a few comments about how Fairley is as good or better than Suh. Dont kid yourself. When Fairley went down with an injury, the common thought was that the defense would take a huge hit. Yet it never missed a step. The reason for this is because it is not that Fairley was so good, but because he looked so good playing alongside of Suh. When Cj Mosely stepped in and became the next starter, he did so seamlessly. The Lions can get another DT to play next to Suh and possibly improve the defensive line, but if they lose Suh, the line takes a harsh step backwards.
Most fans who want to let Suh go are afraid of the cash flow problems. This will only be a real problem if the Lions toss the Franchise Tag on the best DT in the NFL. The $26.9 Million that would take is just too steep a price at this time. But if they sign him to a multi-year long term deal, they can afford that. Even if it cost them 18 million this year, and I dont believe it will cost that much.
The Detroit Lions had the #2 defense last year and the best run defense overall. With good reasons to believe the offense will get better, if they want to make a push for the Superbowl, they need to keep the defense in tact. This is not impossible if Suh leaves, and if he does walk, i will go deeper into how the Lions can still succeed, but keeping the best DT in the game is by far the easiest way and surest way to go forward and not backward next year.
Saturday, January 31, 2015
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As with most other websites, we collect and use the data contained in log files. The information in the log files include your IP (internet protocol) address, your ISP (internet service provider, such as AOL or Shaw Cable), the browser you used to visit our site (such as Internet Explorer or Firefox), the time you visited our site and which pages you visited throughout our site.
We verify your IP against blacklists to avoid spam on our blog and forum. If you are using automated means to spam or disrupting service on Analyzing Lions we will submit your IP, log in name and any other information we collect to appropriate parties. This may include local authorities or websites tracking spam such as HoneyPotNet, Akismet, and StopForumSpam.
Cookies and Web Beacons
It is possible we may be using Cookies and/or Web Beacons here at Analyzing Lions but in all honesty, it is not my intent if so. It would be something that happens beyond my limited Blogging knowledge.
To my understanding, Advertising partners and other third parties may also use cookies, scripts and/or web beacons to track visitors to our site in order to display advertisements and other useful information. Such tracking is done directly by the third parties through their own servers and is subject to their own privacy policies.
You can chose to disable or selectively turn off our cookies or third-party cookies in your browser settings, or by managing preferences in programs such as Norton Internet Security. However, this can affect how you are able to interact with our site as well as other websites. This could include the inability to login to services or programs, such as logging into forums or accounts.
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