Who Should the Lions Keep for Running Backs?

The Lions have a bunch of running backs on their roster and the majority of fans can probably guess who will be kept on the roster. I have a different take and it may surprise some of you.

As usual when coming from me, be prepared for a bit of a different point of view and not one that just follows what most media and analysts tell us what to believe.

There are a couple of players who are absolute locks at this point. Though this article will be on the understanding they are healthy.

Lagarette Blount - He will be  on the roster day one. No doubt about it. He is the best short yardage back in the NFL in recent years and the Lions had no ability to get the tough yards last year. They signed him for a reason and he is a lock to be playing week one.

Kerryon Johnson - The Lions not only took him in the second round, but they traded up to get him. They are very high on this kid and no matter how bad he looks in preseason, he will get every opportunity to develop on the Lions NFL roster.

These next two guys are 90% locks.

Nick Bawden - Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn have laid everything on the line to get a running game going. Ignoring some major defensive holes, they drafted an offensive lineman in the first round and followed that up by trading up to get Kerryon Johnson. With only six picks in the draft, they spent four of them on offense. It is safe to say that they drafted a fullback with every intention of using him, so unless he really pukes up his preseason, he will be on the roster in week one.

Ameer Abdullah - A lot of fans dont like him as he has not proven himself yet in Detroit. The Lions coaches will give him one more year though. However many carries he had and even though he lost his starting job last year, Ameer has yet to be given a fair chance to succeed. Lets face the facts here. Last year the Lions blocking scheme sucked. The play calling sucked. The offensive line was injury riddled (again). Basically, Todd Gurley would not have looked good on the Lions last year, so it is ridiculous to expect Abdullah to be better than Gurley.  This year they have a new Head Coach, they added two new offensive line coaches. Supposedly they are cleaning up some of Cooters play calling mistakes. And they added a Fullback.  Considering Kerryon Johnson's health history, the Lions need a RB who can run the ball if injuries take their toll, and Abdullah is the only other RB on the roster who fits the style of Kerryon even a little.

That is four running back positions filled and likely one more to fill. Here is where I will surprise you. It will likely be Theo Riddick, but that is the wrong move.

What? How can you cut the best receiving back in the NFL?  Did I get your reply correct? Because he has that reputation, I am expecting Patricia to believe it too and keep him. But if Patricia really knows what he is doing, he will try to trade Riddick during the preseason. Why? Because Riddick is actually not near as good as you have been told.

I know, I know, he had 80 catches in 2015. He has had 186 grabs over the last three years. He has an absolutely sick first move to make would be tacklers miss. I agree with all of that. Now let me fill you in on a few things you might not know.  In the last three seasons, there have been a total of 90 RBs to catch at least 25 passes in a season.  This is how Riddick compares....

Average yards per catch -- Riddick's best season he had 8.7 yards per catch. That is good for 30th. His other two seasons he comes in at 35th and tied for 70th. 

20+ yard plays
Now this is like most stats where they can be deceiving because a player who gets more passes thrown to them has a much higher chance of having more 20+ yard plays.  So instead of giving the total of these plays, I looked up how many plays they go between a 20+ yard reception. 

Riddick's three seasons -- In 2015 he had a 20+ yard reception once every 11.43 catches. In 2016 he had a 20+ yard reception once every 26.5 catches. In 2017 he had a 20+ yard reception once every 10.7 catches. 

In the three seasons, 25 other RBs had 20+ yard plays more often.

You are probably wondering how he compared in his best season alone. in 2017 alone, he would have ranked 11th. In his best season, he wasn't even in the top 10.

40+ yard plays -- Same statistic stipulations.
In the last 3 seasons (186 catches), Riddick has a grand total of 1 catch for 40+ yards.

In the three seasons, 58 RBs have had at least 1 reception for 40+ yards. Eight of them have done it more than once.

Basically what I am saying is that the only statistics of Riddicks that make him look good, have to do with him getting fed the ball so often. If the Lions just keep Johnson on the field on 3rd and long instead of using Riddick, there is a pretty fair chance he will do more with the ball when he gets it. In fact, I would say that Abdullah and even Zenner would do more with the ball when they get it.

Yes Riddick has great hands. He is a great route runner. He has awesome agility and makes tacklers miss. I don't deny any of that. In fact, if Riddick had any power or speed, I would venture to say he would be a top 5 RB in the NFL. The problem is he does not have speed and he does not have power. He needs to make the first guy miss and hope to God he has open space to run in order to do any damage at all. And more often than not, he still doesn't get very far.

Now there are some teams out there who would actually be better off with Riddick, because he does have some awesome abilities. But the Lions have other running backs who are still good route runners, good hands, and either have the agility to make a guy miss, or have the power to break through a tackle. And they would have a much higher chance of breaking a long run.  For the Lions to keep Riddick, he should be head and shoulders above them to make it worth putting him on the field. Because Riddick cannot run with the ball off of handoffs, and is only good as a receiver out of the backfield, every defense knows what is coming when he is on the field. So to make that a viable option, he needs to be their best option by far, and he simply is not.

Yet Riddick still has a good reputation in the NFL as a good receiver out of the backfield. If the Lions were smart, they would look to trade him. Get something for him while his value is high and give the last running back spot to Zack Zenner.

Zack Zenner -- A lot of fans dont like him for some reason. They point to last year and look at how Zenner failed in every short yardage opportunity and say he sucks. What they want to ignore is that the Lions had terrible play calling, horrible blocking schemes and the offensive line was injury riddled. Blount was not going to convert most of those plays last year and he is the best short yardage guy in the NFL.  But if you go back to 2016 when Zenner actually got some real playing time? You find he was one of the best runners the Lions have had since Sanders retired.  He hit holes when he had them, he broke tackles, he made taacklers miss, he caught the ball well and he didn't fumble. He is one of the best all around RBs we have had in a long time and the Lions simply did not want to use him. 

Even if you don't think he is that good, there are more reasons he should be the one to keep.
1) AA is clearly the best backup option for Johnson. What if Blount gets hurt? Do you want to start using Johnson as your power runner with his injury history? Zenner is the only viable option at this point unless you want to hand the ball to the FB. But then he wouldn't have a FB to block for him.  Zenner is the best backup for Blount we have.

2) Zenner is a very good Special Teams player.

Dwayne Washington -- Unless the Lions are going to keep 6 running backs, Washington is playing this preseason as an audition for another team.  The thing with Washington is he has a lot of good intangibles. He has all the qualities of a good RB that you cannot teach. He has power, speed, agility, and hands. He needs time to develop vision and he needs experience to do that. If he got the experience, there is a chance he could turn into a good running back, but unfortunately the Lions do not have the room or the time to give him that experience.