What kind of scheme does Stafford need? I have had a few people ask this question of me lately and it is always followed up with, "he has been in a few and has not had any success in any of them." Which in truth, is not true. If your only standard for success is playoff wins, then you are right. He hasn't had any success in any scheme, but not because of his play.
Warning
I feel I need to warn you first however, I go into a lot of detail and this is a longer article. Hope its not too boring though.
As most of us know, Stafford's first couple years were shortened by two dislocated shoulders before he had surgery to correct the problem. In his first season as a healthy starter, Stafford threw for 5,038 yards, 41 Touchdowns, 16 picks and a 97.2 QB Rating.
This year there maybe be as many as 4 QBs who reach 5,000 yards for their first time, but let's face it, as the NFL continues to change rules to aid the passing game, it will happen more and more. Before this year however, only a total of 5 QBs have ever reached that mark. Only one has done it multiple times (Brees 5 times). Considering Stafford did it 7 years ago, this is still a huge feat.
Before this year, a total of only 7 QBs have ever thrown for 40+ TDs in a season. So you can see that in 2011, Stafford had the kind of season that put him in elite company. Those numbers for a QB are considered successful by any standards that are even reasonable. To say that is not a successful season for a quarterback, is being simply ridiculous. When you consider that in 2011, Stafford had also injured his throwing hand ans played through it wearing a glove, and in the four games and a bye week while he was healing, he threw ten of those picks? That is only 6 interceptions in the other 12 games. That season is even more impressive. It is one of the greatest single seasons by a QB in history. Average QBs simply dont do that under any circumstances. Yet even if you really wanted to say this was an anomaly, it might interest you that in 2012, Stafford came only 33 yards shy of breaking the 5,000 yard plateau a second time?
I know, you are still wanting to see the wins.
In 2011, the Lions won 10 games. The most wins the Lions had in the previous ten seasons was seven! But in Stafford's first healthy season after coming to a team that went 0-16 the year before he was drafted and was nearly void of talent, he has a historic season and the Lions win 10 games and go to the playoffs. In that game, Stafford threw two picks, but he also threw for 380 yards and 3 TDs.
The picks might bother you though, but consider what position he was put in. The only reason they were playing that game was because they lost to the Packers in the last game of the season, giving GB the bye week instead of the Lions having it. Against the Packers, Stafford threw for 520 yards, 5 TDs and another 2 picks.
Oh my God those picks again right? Try to understand something. When your team cant run the ball and defenses are playing pure pass coverage, and you are forced to air the ball out deep almost every play to one good receiver and you are are still playing behind because your defense cant stop a pass? The miscues will happen.
In week 17 and the playoff game, Stafford threw for a total of 900 yards and 8 TDs. In 2 freaking games! He attempted 102 passes in those two games and completed 64 of them. Mean while, the Lions as a team ran for a total of 105 yards and the defense allowed 946 yards, 9 TDs, and only picked off 1 pass.
In case you haven't figured it out yet, the Lions did not lose those games because Stafford was not successful in those games. They lost because the run game didn't even come close to helping him in the least bit and the defense may have been even worse. Just imagine, without Stafford, the Lions would not have even come close to the playoffs that season. With even a decent defense they would have had a bye week and possibly won a playoff game and more.
However the scheme was not perfect back then either. Linehan had two major flaws. 1) He had no run game or short passing game. (Calvin Johnson had over 200 yards in both of those games) 2) He made zero adjustments.
The Lions had several come from behind wins in 2011 and in one interview Schwartz was asked what kind of adjustments he was making at half times that they were moving the ball in the second half so much better. His answer was "We don't really make adjustments. We just let great players make great plays".
In 2012, defenses started dropping two safeties deep along with doubling up coverage on Calvin Johnson. Their only mission was to take the big play away. Even with that, Stafford threw for almost 5,000 yards again, but they were not able to come back and win like they were the year before. Schwartz ended up being true to his word and the coaches never made any adjustments, and they only won 4 games. In 2013 they continued with the same thing and still didn't adjust the scheme to handle short passes or a run game and won only 7 games and the coaches were fired after that. Even so, in that scheme, Stafford threw for 14,655 yards in three seasons.
Then Came Caldwell and he hire Joe Lombardi to be the OC. Lombardi had everyone on the offense confused, especially the offensive linemen. Quite often they were missing their assignments completely and letting defenders come through untouched. Stafford went from 23 sacks in 2013, to 45 in 2014 and 44 in 2015. Meanwhile Lombardi kept calling down field pass plays that took time to develop while the OL was never giving the receivers enough time to run their routes.
In 2014 the Lions had finally put together a good defense and ended with a top 3 defense in the NFL. Lombardi's aggressive scheme with no protection only moved the ball when teams were in prevent defense. Stafford directed an NFL record 8 come from behind 4th quarter wins that year and they won 11 games and made the playoffs.
The Myth of the Bad Call .... Non Call
Fans like to blame the loss on the refs for the blatantly bad pass interference call that they decided to strangely pick up the flag "after" they marked off the yardage and moved the chains. The truth was the Lions weren't going to win that game anyway. Not because of Stafford or the offense, but because the top ranked defense. What a lot of fans don't remember is that the Lions defense was literally shutting the Cowboys offense down for half a game and well into the third quarter. Then the worst case scenario happened. The Lions top CB that year, Rashean Mathis left the game injured. With only one good cornerback on the defense in Slay, the Cowboys started moving the ball at will and ended up winning the game partially due to a controversial (Ridiculously bad) penalty/pick up the flag choke by the refs. But as bad as that call was, the Lions could not stop the Cowboys from moving the ball with one CB and they likely were not going to win anyway.
No Replacements
In the off season, Suh left and Mathis never came back from injury the same and soon retired. The Lions lost IMO the two most important keys to a great 4-3 defense. They lost their pass rushing DT and one of their good CBs. Without replacing them with similar types of players, they were essentially playing prevent defense all year. If you don't have a DT who takes away the pocket, the QB will simply step up into a clean pocket to escape the DE's. With only one good CB, it doesn't take long for a WR to come open.
After a year and a half of pure confusion in the offense, Lombardi was fired and in came Jim Bob Cooter. At first he looked like a genius. Again, many fans believe he dumbed down the playbook, but the truth is he just cut out some of the long developing plays and started calling short passes to get rid of the ball quicker. This protected Stafford a little more and helped him have more open receivers. In the off-season Cooter trashed Lombardi's playbook and designed his own, according to his words. His scheme has left the downfield passes nearly completely for short dink and dunk passes. He has taken the gunslinger ways from Stafford and turned him into a pure game manager. That just doesn't fit Stafford's football personality.
The Myth of Jim Bob Cooter
Another misconception many fans and even most of the media had after the first season with Cooter was that he had developed Stafford into a much more efficient QB. This belief comes from doing nothing but looking at the stats and seeing the drop in picks and rise in completion percentage. If you don't really pay attention to what all is happening, that is the conclusion one would have when looking at those stats. The guys from 97.1 the Ticket radio station were a big part of pushing that belief. They didn't look at the whole picture, saw the stats and came to a wrong conclusion, and then they pushed it to the listeners and the average fan being the sheep they are, started believing it. Then Patricia came in and didn't watch all of the Lions games to come to his own conclusion and likely heard the media hype and possibly the Fords repeating it as well and decided to keep the OC who was credited with developing Stafford into a more efficient QB. Unfortunately they were all wrong.
Cooter never did a single thing that actually developed Stafford. All he did was call short pass plays instead of the continuous down field passes that Linehan and Lombardi called. When a QB is always airing it out, he will complete fewer and throw more picks. When you start having him dink and dunk with safe passes, his pick rate will drop and his completion percentage will rise naturally. Its basic football 101 logic. But along with helping those statistics of Stafford's, it had bad effects on other things. When a team only dins and dunks and never throws down field until they are two scores down, it draws the safeties in closer as they anticipate short passes. It gives the short route receivers less room to run and makes it harder for them to get desparation. Something the Lions are struggling with badly now. It takes the run game away some. Something the Lions are having their best year with but due to having beast top picks in the draft and great RBs to do.
The Cure
Stafford is a gun slinger. Not a game manager. He needs to be a part of an aggressive offense that moves the ball down field. He needs a coordinator who will be aggressive but just not stupidly like Linehan did where he had no short game at all. A good OC will mix the plays up. He will dink and dunk, throw in a handful of medium range passes as well as go deep here and there. If you don't mix it up, you become very predictable and basic and that is easy to defend. Linehan was the closest to what Stafford needs but he was still too predictable with down field passing only. Lombardi was just a mess. Cooter is far too conservative and has taken Stafford out of his element completely. If the Lions would add an OC who is aggressive but knows how to mix it all up as well as use a little imagination, and they continue to have this run game, and they add a good CB and D-linemen? They can have a very good team. Then you will finally see Stafford in his element and having success as a QB again, while the better run game and defense would give the TEAM more success in the win column.
Showing posts with label Stafford. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stafford. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 4, 2018
Friday, June 1, 2018
It Takes a Stupid Fan to Think Stafford is Not Great
This isn't Hollywood folks, it is real NFL Football. Players on bad teams tend to lose. A lot. It doesn't matter how good they are, if they don't get enough help, they will lose to better teams. You wont get many promos for games saying "Stafford vs Brady". You will see them more in other sports. "Tyson vs Holyfield", "Verlander vs Scherzer", "Lebron vs Durant"! These all make good promos because in other sports one player can sometime pick a team up and carry it on his back like they do in Hollywood movies. Its not something you see in the NFL. You will see a promo like that once in a while but they don't get near the attention as in other sports for one very simple reason. The NFL is the ultimate in "Team" sports!
Every time I hear someone say "Stafford's not that great! He never wins big games!", I want to slam my forehead into my desk. Since it is hard to type with a concussion when you are a search and destroy typist, I am stuck with just shaking my head slowly and mumbling something about people not knowing anything about football. Every time anyone lifts an NFL player up above another who has bigger stats only because he has Superbowl rings, I look up and ask God why he had to place so many stupid people on the Earth. It is the biggest problem with the world placing so many laws on us. It derails the process of Natural selection!
Another great cliche that uses enough logic to make a goldfish look smart? "Stafford gets all his yards against prevent defenses in the fourth quarter."
Can someone please point out that last year Stafford had more yards in the 2nd and in the 3rd quarters than he had in the 4th quarters!
The worst thing is? These aren't even the dumbest of the lot! Oh no! They have a big brother when it comes to stupidity! The worst ones are those who will comment and laugh at me and say I dont know anything about football when I say Stafford is an elite quarterback who has been stuck on a bad team.
Seriously though, this is not Hollywood. Players don't "will" bad teams to victory over much better teams. On occasion, a bad team can beat a good team, but its not because one player placed them on his back and carried them. It is because the entire team put in their best effort and catch the good team on a bad day. There are many who think Emmett Smith is a better running back than Barry Sanders. No, seriously! There are. Stop laughing. Simply because Smith has Superbowl Rings and the all time rushing yards record. They don't even acknowledge that Sanders had the record wrapped up before retiring early. They don't even consider the fact that if Barry had been behind the Cowboys offensive line, that he would have had nearly 2,000 yards every year. It is simple logic here. If two players are similar in stats year to year but one is on a great team and a great line blocking for him, and the other has a line with two good players and three bad ones? The guy who is doing just as much with less to work with is the better player. Hands down! For some reason people refuse to use this simple logic with Stafford.
Stafford has 7 consecutive seasons of 4,000+ yards in his 9 year career so far. Only one has more consecutive years of it. Drew Brees. Brady only has 9 total in his 17 years. Manning had 14 total and might have had 12 or 13 in a row if not for his one injured year that split them up. Brees has done it 12 straight times now. No other QB has come close to matching these guys. Even Aaron Rodgers has not done this more than twice in a row yet.
Peyton Manning = 17 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 14, consecutive = 6
Tom Brady = 17 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 9, consecutive = 5
Drew Brees = 16 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 12, consecutive = 12
Matthew Stafford = 9 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 7, consecutive = 7
Then of course people will say its easy to put up a bunch of yards when you throw so many passes, right? Wrong!
Stafford is different than these others for one reason. He has had less help on his team than the others through his career. In his 9 seasons, Stafford has only had seven 100 yard rushers spread out through 4 different seasons to take some pressure off his back. Look, there are two ways of moving the ball in the NFL. Passing and Running. The Lions have never had a run game behind Stafford. This is essentially the same as the Lions trotting Stafford out onto the field every week and just announcing to the other team, "We cant run the ball. You know it. We know it. Everyone knows we have to pass the ball. Try and stop us!" And Stafford still succeeds enough to put up numbers with the best ever. To make it even harder on him, only one season has Stafford enjoyed a good defense that would consistently get him the ball back to give him more opportunities. He has to make the most of the natural process of the drives.
The Lions have had zero run game. They have had bad to average defenses. Every year they go into the season with Stafford's arm and if that fails they have nothing else to offer. For the most part, Stafford has never even enjoyed a real good blocking offensive line to let him enjoy a clean pocket. In other words, he has never had the luxuries in a game that Brady, Brees, Manning and Rodgers have had in their careers.
What those other QBs have done is nothing less than outstanding. Their numbers make them elite. Some of the greatest to ever play the game. For Matthew Stafford to match them under his circumstances? That is nothing short of phenomenal. If you think he isnt elite, then show me another average or even decent QB who has put up even close to similar numbers. There have been a whole ton of bad teams in the history of the NFL who couldn't run the ball. Who had to depend on QBs passing the ball a lot. Do you know why there are no others who match Stafford's numbers? Because they were not good enough to do it. Why didn't they get as many opportunities to throw the ball a million times? Because they didn't succeed enough with the chances they had and had to give the other team the ball more.
Stafford is not on pace to be one of the great QBs of this era. He is on pace to make a run at being the greatest of all time. All it will take is for him to stay healthy, and by the way, he is one of the toughest QBs of all time too.
Oh I'm sorry. I forgot that he cant be called elite without winning a Superbowl. Well for everyone who thinks those rings make a difference to whether a specific player is great or not? With a little luck maybe someone will design a Speak and Spell for NFL fans someday so they can understand this is a "TEAM" Sport!
Every time I hear someone say "Stafford's not that great! He never wins big games!", I want to slam my forehead into my desk. Since it is hard to type with a concussion when you are a search and destroy typist, I am stuck with just shaking my head slowly and mumbling something about people not knowing anything about football. Every time anyone lifts an NFL player up above another who has bigger stats only because he has Superbowl rings, I look up and ask God why he had to place so many stupid people on the Earth. It is the biggest problem with the world placing so many laws on us. It derails the process of Natural selection!
Another great cliche that uses enough logic to make a goldfish look smart? "Stafford gets all his yards against prevent defenses in the fourth quarter."
Can someone please point out that last year Stafford had more yards in the 2nd and in the 3rd quarters than he had in the 4th quarters!
The worst thing is? These aren't even the dumbest of the lot! Oh no! They have a big brother when it comes to stupidity! The worst ones are those who will comment and laugh at me and say I dont know anything about football when I say Stafford is an elite quarterback who has been stuck on a bad team.
Seriously though, this is not Hollywood. Players don't "will" bad teams to victory over much better teams. On occasion, a bad team can beat a good team, but its not because one player placed them on his back and carried them. It is because the entire team put in their best effort and catch the good team on a bad day. There are many who think Emmett Smith is a better running back than Barry Sanders. No, seriously! There are. Stop laughing. Simply because Smith has Superbowl Rings and the all time rushing yards record. They don't even acknowledge that Sanders had the record wrapped up before retiring early. They don't even consider the fact that if Barry had been behind the Cowboys offensive line, that he would have had nearly 2,000 yards every year. It is simple logic here. If two players are similar in stats year to year but one is on a great team and a great line blocking for him, and the other has a line with two good players and three bad ones? The guy who is doing just as much with less to work with is the better player. Hands down! For some reason people refuse to use this simple logic with Stafford.
Stafford has 7 consecutive seasons of 4,000+ yards in his 9 year career so far. Only one has more consecutive years of it. Drew Brees. Brady only has 9 total in his 17 years. Manning had 14 total and might have had 12 or 13 in a row if not for his one injured year that split them up. Brees has done it 12 straight times now. No other QB has come close to matching these guys. Even Aaron Rodgers has not done this more than twice in a row yet.
Peyton Manning = 17 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 14, consecutive = 6
Tom Brady = 17 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 9, consecutive = 5
Drew Brees = 16 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 12, consecutive = 12
Matthew Stafford = 9 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 7, consecutive = 7
Then of course people will say its easy to put up a bunch of yards when you throw so many passes, right? Wrong!
Stafford is different than these others for one reason. He has had less help on his team than the others through his career. In his 9 seasons, Stafford has only had seven 100 yard rushers spread out through 4 different seasons to take some pressure off his back. Look, there are two ways of moving the ball in the NFL. Passing and Running. The Lions have never had a run game behind Stafford. This is essentially the same as the Lions trotting Stafford out onto the field every week and just announcing to the other team, "We cant run the ball. You know it. We know it. Everyone knows we have to pass the ball. Try and stop us!" And Stafford still succeeds enough to put up numbers with the best ever. To make it even harder on him, only one season has Stafford enjoyed a good defense that would consistently get him the ball back to give him more opportunities. He has to make the most of the natural process of the drives.
The Lions have had zero run game. They have had bad to average defenses. Every year they go into the season with Stafford's arm and if that fails they have nothing else to offer. For the most part, Stafford has never even enjoyed a real good blocking offensive line to let him enjoy a clean pocket. In other words, he has never had the luxuries in a game that Brady, Brees, Manning and Rodgers have had in their careers.
What those other QBs have done is nothing less than outstanding. Their numbers make them elite. Some of the greatest to ever play the game. For Matthew Stafford to match them under his circumstances? That is nothing short of phenomenal. If you think he isnt elite, then show me another average or even decent QB who has put up even close to similar numbers. There have been a whole ton of bad teams in the history of the NFL who couldn't run the ball. Who had to depend on QBs passing the ball a lot. Do you know why there are no others who match Stafford's numbers? Because they were not good enough to do it. Why didn't they get as many opportunities to throw the ball a million times? Because they didn't succeed enough with the chances they had and had to give the other team the ball more.
Stafford is not on pace to be one of the great QBs of this era. He is on pace to make a run at being the greatest of all time. All it will take is for him to stay healthy, and by the way, he is one of the toughest QBs of all time too.
Oh I'm sorry. I forgot that he cant be called elite without winning a Superbowl. Well for everyone who thinks those rings make a difference to whether a specific player is great or not? With a little luck maybe someone will design a Speak and Spell for NFL fans someday so they can understand this is a "TEAM" Sport!
Sunday, February 15, 2015
How Good is the Real Matthew Stafford?
Go to any forum or discussion on the Detroit Lions on-line, and you will likely find a debate on the Lions QB mixed in there as well. Is Matthew Stafford over-rated (and over paid) as an NFL quarterback? Is he a good quarterback in a bad situation? That is a debate that only a Superbowl will ever decide.
One thing I have noticed in every discussion, debate, or argument (whichever you like calling them), is that every fan has his theories. Theories are a very important part of these discussions, but they need to be backed up by facts. So I want to go back and look at Matthew Stafford’s career, list his stats and add my own theories.
As we all know, Stafford was drafted #1 overall, in the 2009 NFL Draft by our beloved Detroit Lions. He was expected to be the next great thing and instead, he only started 13 games in his first two years due to injuries. For the most part, he suffered two dislocated shoulders (same shoulder). So his career really didn’t take off until his third season in 2011.
2011 -- It was the year we all had been waiting for. Stafford had surgery on his shoulder in the off-season and to the knowledge of most, he was healthy for the first full season of his career. Some would say he was great that year if not for the 16 picks he threw. But the truth is, if you remember, Stafford was not healthy the entire season. In the middle of the season, Stafford hit his hand on a helmet and broke a finger on his throwing hand. It took him the bye-week and four games to get healthy again.
Stats for four games Stafford was playing with the broken finger…
Comp% 65.96% - 1,348 yards - 8 TDs - 10 Picks with a 1-3 win loss record.
In the 10 games Stafford was healthy in 2011 …..
Comp% 62.53% - 3,690 yards - 33 TDs - 6 Picks with a 9-3 win loss record.
Any way you look at those numbers, Matthew Stafford put up elite stats in 2011 while he was healthy. He took the Lions to their first playoff game in over a decade. Unfortunately, the win-loss record of 10-6 for the Lions was a deceiving stat. The team was not as good as it portrayed itself to be. The Lions did not have a good running game and the offense was based on the big play. The Scott Linehan offense was not built to methodically move the ball down the field and score, but it was built to beat teams with big plays. That allowed defenses to study their game and prepare for them in the off-season. One thing to note here, is that after the Lions had made several come from behind wins, Jim Schwartz was asked about what adjustments they were making at half time for the Lions to keep coming back in games. His answer… “We don’t make adjustments. We just let great players make great plays.” This was the beginning to me not being his fan, and as the season continued, I saw just how flawed they were. After the year was over, many fans were expecting the Lions to win 11+ games the next year. I started saying how I expected them to win 8 or 9 games tops and it would not surprise me if they were worse.
2012 -- The Lions were definitely worse, as they only won 4 games and Matthew Stafford ended up looking average. Staying healthy for the entire season, he only completed 59.83% of his passes. Though he threw for 4,967 yards, he only threw 20 TDs and had another 17 picked off. So why the drop off?
In the first weeks of the season it became apparent that defensive coordinators had done their homework, as they dropped two safeties deep and doubled up on Calvin Johnson. Essentially, teams took away the Lions big play and forced them to methodically move the ball down the field. Something they were not built to do. As the season continued, it became evident that Schwartz and Linehan did not have an answer for how defenses were trying to stop them. Simply put, the Detroit Lions coaches did not make any adjustments again.
After only 4 wins in 2012, many people were calling for another bad year. I believed they would win 6 games. Though I had no faith in the coaches anymore, I believed the Lions had enough talent to win more games.
2013 -- The Lions made a move that made a big difference. They brought in Reggie Bush to be the RB. Bush had a reputation as a playmaker. A runningback with speed enough to make defenses pay. This paid off, as defenses were no longer able to drop back and play deep, taking away the big play, without taking a chance Bush would take the next carry for a TD. This forced teams to play a more honest defense and Stafford once again was putting up elite numbers.
In the first 8 games of 2013, Stafford's stats were….
Comp% 62.43% - 2,617 yards - 16 TDs - 6 Picks with a 5-3 win loss record.
Then Stafford seemed to fall apart as the next 8 games were….
Comp% 54.05% - 2,033 yards - 13 TDs - 13 Picks with a 2-6 win loss record.
Obviously there was a dramatic drop off, but you have to ask yourself, why? If Stafford was simply an inconsistent quarterback, he would have a good game followed by a couple bad games, then a good game or two followed by more bad games, etc… His season was far too consistent (great for 8 games and bad for 8 games) to accept it as simple inconsistency. So what caused such a big drop off?
Unfortunately, believe it or not, this is also a case of the coaches not making adjustments. Not once, but twice in the second half, opposing players came out and explained why they were able to come back and beat the Lions. Both players eluded to the fact that Lions were running the same plays in the second half of the year as the first half, and the second half of games as they did in the first half of games. Now, if only one player would have said that, I would have shrugged it off. But the knowledge that Jim Schwartz himself had said in 2011 that they didn’t make adjustments, and the fact that they never made adjustments to counter what defenses were doing in 2012, and then to have a second player say something very similar? This made it a clear case in my opinion. The coaches were calling the same ole plays and defensive players were recognizing them on the field.
Now of course some would say that shouldn’t make a team completely collapse. I would beg to differ. These are professional athletes, but they are human. When a receiver is finding there is no room to run because the defensive backs are following their routes so well, they will try to do too much. They will tend to start turning to run before securing the catch. That usually ends up with a lot more dropped passes. If the receivers are never getting open and the team starts losing, quarterbacks will start trying to force passes into tighter windows instead of throwing the ball away or taking a sack. This leads to more interceptions. Losing will force running backs to try pushing for the extra yards rather than securing the ball with two arms when he is tackled. When a player, no matter how great the player is, is always seeing tough times and put into too much pressure too often, they will start to make mistakes. This is why the Detroit Lions fell apart. IF it was just Matthew Stafford who fell apart, I would have to toss this theory out the window and blame the quarterback. But it wasn’t just Stafford. He was throwing passes he shouldn’t and making wild throws, but receivers and running backs were also dropping passes and fumbling the ball a lot. When an entire team falls apart, you cant blame one player, but you have to look for a reason why an entire team would collapse. That fits the fact that defenders were recognizing plays and making life impossible; because the coaches once again either refused, or did not have the imagination to make adjustments.
One can find reasons to say Stafford is not a very good quarterback if they want, but there are arguments to be made on why those reasons cant be right. If he simply wasn’t very good, he would not have had the long stretches (10 games in 2011 and 8 games in 2013) when he was elite. Bad quarterbacks can have great games. Even a few great games, but they don’t have that many games of being elite and then that many games of being average. Matthew Stafford’s streaks are more in the line of something other than his own abilities causing him to falter.
What about 2014 then? Stafford was not great in 2014 was he? Yet he didn’t have Schwartz to hurt him then! This is true, but there was a lot more to hold Stafford down in 2014 than bad coaches. First, there was the simple fact that the entire team was learning a new scheme and one of the most difficult playbooks in the NFL. It takes time for an entire offense to learn it and gel together in a scheme. Secondly, there is the issue with all of the injuries to the offensive line. By the time the season ended in the excruciating game in Dallas, the Lions offensive Line was down to two third string linemen on the right side of the line. When a line cannot give the QB time to find an open WR, and the receivers time to get open, the offense is not going to move the ball. Third, there is the fact that Reggie Bush was either hurt or simply not fast enough anymore. He did not pose enough of a threat to defenses and so they dropped the safeties back again and blitzed less against the Lions than almost all other teams, instead dropping players into coverage to make it tougher for Stafford.
To make things clear, 2014 was not a problem with Stafford, but a collage of problems that made the season almost impossible for Stafford. He was forced to dump the ball off a lot while under pressure and was not able to go down field much. It was a season where you simply cannot judge any one player over. In the past, when placed in a position to succeed, Stafford has indeed put up elite numbers. He will again.
Many fans want to hate Stafford and wont look at things the way I pointed them out in this article. So there is one other thing you can do to judge him. There is no quarterback to ever play in the NFL who can do it all by himself. Every great QB needs 3 of the following things.
1) Good receivers.
2) Good Play calling.
3) Good protection.
4) a decent running game.
All of your best QBs have three of those things. But name a time when Stafford has had three of them in one season. Maybe the 2011 season, but if then, it only fits my arguments.
As we all know, Stafford was drafted #1 overall, in the 2009 NFL Draft by our beloved Detroit Lions. He was expected to be the next great thing and instead, he only started 13 games in his first two years due to injuries. For the most part, he suffered two dislocated shoulders (same shoulder). So his career really didn’t take off until his third season in 2011.
2011 -- It was the year we all had been waiting for. Stafford had surgery on his shoulder in the off-season and to the knowledge of most, he was healthy for the first full season of his career. Some would say he was great that year if not for the 16 picks he threw. But the truth is, if you remember, Stafford was not healthy the entire season. In the middle of the season, Stafford hit his hand on a helmet and broke a finger on his throwing hand. It took him the bye-week and four games to get healthy again.
Stats for four games Stafford was playing with the broken finger…
Comp% 65.96% - 1,348 yards - 8 TDs - 10 Picks with a 1-3 win loss record.
In the 10 games Stafford was healthy in 2011 …..
Comp% 62.53% - 3,690 yards - 33 TDs - 6 Picks with a 9-3 win loss record.
Any way you look at those numbers, Matthew Stafford put up elite stats in 2011 while he was healthy. He took the Lions to their first playoff game in over a decade. Unfortunately, the win-loss record of 10-6 for the Lions was a deceiving stat. The team was not as good as it portrayed itself to be. The Lions did not have a good running game and the offense was based on the big play. The Scott Linehan offense was not built to methodically move the ball down the field and score, but it was built to beat teams with big plays. That allowed defenses to study their game and prepare for them in the off-season. One thing to note here, is that after the Lions had made several come from behind wins, Jim Schwartz was asked about what adjustments they were making at half time for the Lions to keep coming back in games. His answer… “We don’t make adjustments. We just let great players make great plays.” This was the beginning to me not being his fan, and as the season continued, I saw just how flawed they were. After the year was over, many fans were expecting the Lions to win 11+ games the next year. I started saying how I expected them to win 8 or 9 games tops and it would not surprise me if they were worse.
2012 -- The Lions were definitely worse, as they only won 4 games and Matthew Stafford ended up looking average. Staying healthy for the entire season, he only completed 59.83% of his passes. Though he threw for 4,967 yards, he only threw 20 TDs and had another 17 picked off. So why the drop off?
In the first weeks of the season it became apparent that defensive coordinators had done their homework, as they dropped two safeties deep and doubled up on Calvin Johnson. Essentially, teams took away the Lions big play and forced them to methodically move the ball down the field. Something they were not built to do. As the season continued, it became evident that Schwartz and Linehan did not have an answer for how defenses were trying to stop them. Simply put, the Detroit Lions coaches did not make any adjustments again.
After only 4 wins in 2012, many people were calling for another bad year. I believed they would win 6 games. Though I had no faith in the coaches anymore, I believed the Lions had enough talent to win more games.
2013 -- The Lions made a move that made a big difference. They brought in Reggie Bush to be the RB. Bush had a reputation as a playmaker. A runningback with speed enough to make defenses pay. This paid off, as defenses were no longer able to drop back and play deep, taking away the big play, without taking a chance Bush would take the next carry for a TD. This forced teams to play a more honest defense and Stafford once again was putting up elite numbers.
In the first 8 games of 2013, Stafford's stats were….
Comp% 62.43% - 2,617 yards - 16 TDs - 6 Picks with a 5-3 win loss record.
Then Stafford seemed to fall apart as the next 8 games were….
Comp% 54.05% - 2,033 yards - 13 TDs - 13 Picks with a 2-6 win loss record.
Obviously there was a dramatic drop off, but you have to ask yourself, why? If Stafford was simply an inconsistent quarterback, he would have a good game followed by a couple bad games, then a good game or two followed by more bad games, etc… His season was far too consistent (great for 8 games and bad for 8 games) to accept it as simple inconsistency. So what caused such a big drop off?
Unfortunately, believe it or not, this is also a case of the coaches not making adjustments. Not once, but twice in the second half, opposing players came out and explained why they were able to come back and beat the Lions. Both players eluded to the fact that Lions were running the same plays in the second half of the year as the first half, and the second half of games as they did in the first half of games. Now, if only one player would have said that, I would have shrugged it off. But the knowledge that Jim Schwartz himself had said in 2011 that they didn’t make adjustments, and the fact that they never made adjustments to counter what defenses were doing in 2012, and then to have a second player say something very similar? This made it a clear case in my opinion. The coaches were calling the same ole plays and defensive players were recognizing them on the field.
Now of course some would say that shouldn’t make a team completely collapse. I would beg to differ. These are professional athletes, but they are human. When a receiver is finding there is no room to run because the defensive backs are following their routes so well, they will try to do too much. They will tend to start turning to run before securing the catch. That usually ends up with a lot more dropped passes. If the receivers are never getting open and the team starts losing, quarterbacks will start trying to force passes into tighter windows instead of throwing the ball away or taking a sack. This leads to more interceptions. Losing will force running backs to try pushing for the extra yards rather than securing the ball with two arms when he is tackled. When a player, no matter how great the player is, is always seeing tough times and put into too much pressure too often, they will start to make mistakes. This is why the Detroit Lions fell apart. IF it was just Matthew Stafford who fell apart, I would have to toss this theory out the window and blame the quarterback. But it wasn’t just Stafford. He was throwing passes he shouldn’t and making wild throws, but receivers and running backs were also dropping passes and fumbling the ball a lot. When an entire team falls apart, you cant blame one player, but you have to look for a reason why an entire team would collapse. That fits the fact that defenders were recognizing plays and making life impossible; because the coaches once again either refused, or did not have the imagination to make adjustments.
One can find reasons to say Stafford is not a very good quarterback if they want, but there are arguments to be made on why those reasons cant be right. If he simply wasn’t very good, he would not have had the long stretches (10 games in 2011 and 8 games in 2013) when he was elite. Bad quarterbacks can have great games. Even a few great games, but they don’t have that many games of being elite and then that many games of being average. Matthew Stafford’s streaks are more in the line of something other than his own abilities causing him to falter.
What about 2014 then? Stafford was not great in 2014 was he? Yet he didn’t have Schwartz to hurt him then! This is true, but there was a lot more to hold Stafford down in 2014 than bad coaches. First, there was the simple fact that the entire team was learning a new scheme and one of the most difficult playbooks in the NFL. It takes time for an entire offense to learn it and gel together in a scheme. Secondly, there is the issue with all of the injuries to the offensive line. By the time the season ended in the excruciating game in Dallas, the Lions offensive Line was down to two third string linemen on the right side of the line. When a line cannot give the QB time to find an open WR, and the receivers time to get open, the offense is not going to move the ball. Third, there is the fact that Reggie Bush was either hurt or simply not fast enough anymore. He did not pose enough of a threat to defenses and so they dropped the safeties back again and blitzed less against the Lions than almost all other teams, instead dropping players into coverage to make it tougher for Stafford.
To make things clear, 2014 was not a problem with Stafford, but a collage of problems that made the season almost impossible for Stafford. He was forced to dump the ball off a lot while under pressure and was not able to go down field much. It was a season where you simply cannot judge any one player over. In the past, when placed in a position to succeed, Stafford has indeed put up elite numbers. He will again.
Many fans want to hate Stafford and wont look at things the way I pointed them out in this article. So there is one other thing you can do to judge him. There is no quarterback to ever play in the NFL who can do it all by himself. Every great QB needs 3 of the following things.
1) Good receivers.
2) Good Play calling.
3) Good protection.
4) a decent running game.
All of your best QBs have three of those things. But name a time when Stafford has had three of them in one season. Maybe the 2011 season, but if then, it only fits my arguments.
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