There is a large push from the fan base for the Lions to draft offensive line this year, and one cannot argue that it is a need. But is it really the most important need? With only three picks worth talking about in the upcoming draft, I want to give you some very interesting reasons why a running back would be the most important player they can add.
A lot of proponents of taking an offensive lineman keep saying that a great offensive line is the most important thing to have, but they are ignoring one important fact. It takes five great players to have a great offensive line. With no 4th or 5th round picks this year, the Lions cant spend more than one on the O-line. So we are not debating between a great Running Back and a great O-line. We are talking about having a great RB or adding one great lineman. Lets face the truth here. If they add one lineman, he is not going to have a huge impact as a rookie. One lineman wont change a bad line into aa great line anyway. So if you think this line is so bad, one player wont make a huge difference to it. However, a true #1 running back can make an immediate impact to both the run game and the pass game.
I know, you may believe the NFL is going the way of the RB by Committee and they are a dime a dozen right? I did a little study and I would like to list a few stats I found from this study.
First off, I needed to decide what accounts for a team using the RB by Committee approach, and what makes it a #1 RB approach, so I chose this rule and stuck with it. I took the top two RBs for each team and tallied their rushing attempts. Of their total carries, if one of the RBs got the ball 70% of the time or more, I named it a #1RB team. If the division was less than 70%, I listed it as a RB by Committee (RBC). These are based on 2014 stats only.
1) 16 teams used the #1RB and 16 teams used the RBC approach.
RUSHING
2) Of the 12 teams with 10+ wins, 8 of them used the #1RB (66%)
3) Of the 14 teams with 7 or fewer wins, 8 of them used the RBC (57%)
4) 3 of the 4 top teams in rushing yards used the #1RB (75%)
5) 9 of the top 13 teams in rushing yards used the #1RB (69%)
PASSING
6) 12 of the top 17 teams in passing yards used the #1RB (70%)
7) 10 of the worst 13 teams in passing yards used the RBC ( 77%)
SCORING
8) 9 of the top 12 scoring teams used the #1RB (75%)
9) All 6 of the 6 worst scoring teams used the RBC (100%)
By no means am I saying that you have to have a great RB to win. The Patriots won the Superbowl with virtually no running game whatsoever. But these numbers cannot be ignored. Having a true #1 RB raises the chance of success immensely.
So lets look at Lions history. When were the last times the Detroit Lions had an offense that scared defenses? In 2013 the Lions signed Reggie Bush and in the first half of the season, the offense was very strong. Stafford put up elite numbers in the first 8 games that year. I have placed my beliefs on why the Lions actually collapsed in the Stafford article, but the fact remains. In the first half, the offense was very strong and it was the first year we had Bush in the back field. Then in 2011 when Stafford put up elite numbers again and the Lions made the playoffs. Who was their RB in most of 2011? Jahvid Best, a running back with elite speed who forced defenses to worry about him. And the time before that? Way back before the turn of the century when they had the phenomenal Barry Sanders. When the Lions have had a RB who was consider to be a real home run threat, they have had their best offensive years. They have not had a great offensive year without one.
Last year the Lions faced fewer blitzes than all but maybe one other team. Defenses did not bother blitzing them. Defenses did not bother adding more players in the box and instead opted to drop more players into pass protection. So Bell had a slightly better than average year while facing fewer defenders in the box, meanwhile Stafford had extra defenders to search through to find open receivers. So without changing anything on the offense except to take out the slow powerful RB in Bell, and adding a #1 RB with real elite speed, what would happen? Defenses did not fear Bell. They knew that if Bell broke through into the second tier, they would still tackle him before he could do any real damage. But with real speed back there, they have to think differently. No defense wants to even imagine getting burnt by a long play. If they see a real threat in the backfield, they will bring more defenders in closer. This in turn, opens up the passing game because there are fewer players covering. Even if you added another O-lineman, you wont have this effect on a defense. Add a real home run threat and it changes everything!
I have heard it said over and over again. The 2015 draft is loaded with good RBs. In recent years there have been no running backs coming out of college who were real #1 RBs. This year Gurley and Gordon are named by most to be the best of the best in RBs to come out in the draft. If one of them are available, it would greatly benefit the Lions to take him. They can still draft the Corner Back and Lineman in rounds two or three. Though it may benefit them more to trade down and acquire a pick in the third round, if the Lions drafted the top #1 type of RB in the first round, it would still be a very smart move.
Do not let the myth of the RB by committee scare you. Only half of the teams use the committee and I believe most of them do it only because they simply do not have the RB who is good enough. Yet, with the #1 RB approach and the RB by Committee approach being split down the middle, the numbers supports that the #1 RB teams will have more offensive success.
Showing posts with label Draft-2015. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Draft-2015. Show all posts
Friday, April 3, 2015
Sunday, March 15, 2015
Where the Detroit Lions Sit After Losing Suh
Many believe Suh wanted to leave all along. That he never wanted to stay with the Lions. The fact is however, nobody knows what he was thinking. We can only theorize on how he felt, and of course, when a top player leaves a team, it is only natural to believe he wanted to leave. It is a way of rationalizing the loss. It is still a theory though.
The Detroit Free Press had an exclusive interview with Ndomukong Suh and he finally opened up and spoke about what had happened. Here is the link.... Ndamukong Suh Interview. Basically, it comes down to this. Ndamukong Suh says he never wanted to leave. That he had been expecting to sign with the Lions again. That Miami just offered him too good of a deal and he couldnt refuse it.
After reading the article, here is my belief. Mayhew was offering Suh a very strong deal. He did not believe any team would top it by much. Suh knew what the Lions would offer and didnt think any team would top it by much. So both sides were expecting the Lions would re-sign Suh. This would explain why Mayhew never was willing to trade Suh in the past and why they did not hit him with the franchise tag. They completely expected that whatever any team offered him, the Lions would be able to top. Then Miami threw an offer that surprised the entire NFL world. Too much for even the Lions to match. To much for Suh to refuse. So the Lions were suddenly without their top defensive player and needing to find a way to replace him.
Many thought the Lions would sign Fairley if they lost Suh, but instead they said they would not chase after him. Instead they thought on their feet and pulled a shocking move of their own. They handed the Ravens their 4th round and 5th round pick, for the Raven's 7th round pick and DT - Haloti Ngata. As quick as that, they had replaced Suh with another DT who may not be as good, but is still a top end DT. The problem now however, is the Lions still have several positions to address and only three draft picks worth mentioning.
Here are the positions the Lions still need to address (at the time of writing this).
LG -- With Sims still waiting on offers in free agency, the Lions are in need of a Left Guard. The last I heard, they were talking to Justin Blalock, but he reportedly visited the Lions and left town without a deal. I am fully expecting them to bring back Rob Sims for one more year. Many fans do not like him, but last year he was coming off of surgery and it took over half a year for him to get back into game shape.
RB -- I like Bell as a RB, but lets face the facts, he did not face many in the box last year and he still didnt have a great year. Decent maybe, but not great. The Lions need a RB with real speed. Speed that will force defenses to bring more men into the box to stop him. Speed that will bring the safeties in closer rather than sitting deep and taking the big play away. Enough speed that will help open the passing game again.
#3 WR -- They have Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, but that is it. Unless you are confident Ebron will come to life this year, they only have two solid receivers. With Calvin stretching one side of the field out, and Tate causing havoc in the middle of the field, what the Lions need is a WR with elite speed to pull safeties with him down field and open the others up.
DT -- Ngata is a great pickup, but the Lions need another good DT to help stop the run and push the middle of the pocket back at the QB. I think they will end up re-signing Moseley, but they would then have two older DTs and will need a third one sometime soon to start developing.
DE -- This is likely the least of their needs, but a good DE living across from Ansah would help immensely. Especially with Ngata in the middle now. Ngata is a great run stuffer, but he is not as good in pass rushing. Without Suh putting so much pressure on QBs from the DT spot, the Lions need more out of their Ends.
CB -- They still have Slay but Mathis has become a free agent. It is so important to have two good CBs in todays NFL, that this may be the most important position of all to address. I expect them to bring back Mathis, but they still need another in the draft this year. It usually takes a CB a year to develop in the NFL.Mathis is getting older and it could blow an entire season if Mathis finally loses his touch and the Lions dont have another CB developing. You can get by in the NFL with one good and one average DT. With an average DE, LB or even Safety. If there is one position in the NFL a team cannot get by with an average player, it is cornerback. You must have two good CBs or the NFL QBs will rip you apart.
Here are the players I see the Lions bringing back.
LG - Sims
DT - C.J.Moseley
DE - George Johnson
CB - Rashean Mathis
That leaves them with a CB (developing), RB, #3 WR, OL, & DT (developing) the Lions will still need to add and not having a 4th or 5th round pick in the draft. I think they will add a RB and a CB, and one player in the trenches, either offensive or defensive, with the first three rounds. This will not fill all of their needs, but it will only leave their least important needs.
The Detroit Free Press had an exclusive interview with Ndomukong Suh and he finally opened up and spoke about what had happened. Here is the link.... Ndamukong Suh Interview. Basically, it comes down to this. Ndamukong Suh says he never wanted to leave. That he had been expecting to sign with the Lions again. That Miami just offered him too good of a deal and he couldnt refuse it.
After reading the article, here is my belief. Mayhew was offering Suh a very strong deal. He did not believe any team would top it by much. Suh knew what the Lions would offer and didnt think any team would top it by much. So both sides were expecting the Lions would re-sign Suh. This would explain why Mayhew never was willing to trade Suh in the past and why they did not hit him with the franchise tag. They completely expected that whatever any team offered him, the Lions would be able to top. Then Miami threw an offer that surprised the entire NFL world. Too much for even the Lions to match. To much for Suh to refuse. So the Lions were suddenly without their top defensive player and needing to find a way to replace him.
Many thought the Lions would sign Fairley if they lost Suh, but instead they said they would not chase after him. Instead they thought on their feet and pulled a shocking move of their own. They handed the Ravens their 4th round and 5th round pick, for the Raven's 7th round pick and DT - Haloti Ngata. As quick as that, they had replaced Suh with another DT who may not be as good, but is still a top end DT. The problem now however, is the Lions still have several positions to address and only three draft picks worth mentioning.
Here are the positions the Lions still need to address (at the time of writing this).
LG -- With Sims still waiting on offers in free agency, the Lions are in need of a Left Guard. The last I heard, they were talking to Justin Blalock, but he reportedly visited the Lions and left town without a deal. I am fully expecting them to bring back Rob Sims for one more year. Many fans do not like him, but last year he was coming off of surgery and it took over half a year for him to get back into game shape.
RB -- I like Bell as a RB, but lets face the facts, he did not face many in the box last year and he still didnt have a great year. Decent maybe, but not great. The Lions need a RB with real speed. Speed that will force defenses to bring more men into the box to stop him. Speed that will bring the safeties in closer rather than sitting deep and taking the big play away. Enough speed that will help open the passing game again.
#3 WR -- They have Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, but that is it. Unless you are confident Ebron will come to life this year, they only have two solid receivers. With Calvin stretching one side of the field out, and Tate causing havoc in the middle of the field, what the Lions need is a WR with elite speed to pull safeties with him down field and open the others up.
DT -- Ngata is a great pickup, but the Lions need another good DT to help stop the run and push the middle of the pocket back at the QB. I think they will end up re-signing Moseley, but they would then have two older DTs and will need a third one sometime soon to start developing.
DE -- This is likely the least of their needs, but a good DE living across from Ansah would help immensely. Especially with Ngata in the middle now. Ngata is a great run stuffer, but he is not as good in pass rushing. Without Suh putting so much pressure on QBs from the DT spot, the Lions need more out of their Ends.
CB -- They still have Slay but Mathis has become a free agent. It is so important to have two good CBs in todays NFL, that this may be the most important position of all to address. I expect them to bring back Mathis, but they still need another in the draft this year. It usually takes a CB a year to develop in the NFL.Mathis is getting older and it could blow an entire season if Mathis finally loses his touch and the Lions dont have another CB developing. You can get by in the NFL with one good and one average DT. With an average DE, LB or even Safety. If there is one position in the NFL a team cannot get by with an average player, it is cornerback. You must have two good CBs or the NFL QBs will rip you apart.
Here are the players I see the Lions bringing back.
LG - Sims
DT - C.J.Moseley
DE - George Johnson
CB - Rashean Mathis
That leaves them with a CB (developing), RB, #3 WR, OL, & DT (developing) the Lions will still need to add and not having a 4th or 5th round pick in the draft. I think they will add a RB and a CB, and one player in the trenches, either offensive or defensive, with the first three rounds. This will not fill all of their needs, but it will only leave their least important needs.
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