What Scheme Should Stafford Be In?

What kind of scheme does Stafford need?  I have had a few people ask this question of me lately and it is always followed up with, "he has been in a few and has not had any success in any of them."  Which in truth, is not true.  If your only standard for success is playoff wins, then you are right. He hasn't had any success in any scheme, but not because of his play.

Warning
I feel I need to warn you first however, I go into a lot of detail and this is a longer article. Hope its not too boring though.

As most of us know, Stafford's first couple years were shortened by two dislocated shoulders before he had surgery to correct the problem. In his first season as a healthy starter, Stafford threw for 5,038 yards, 41 Touchdowns, 16 picks and a 97.2 QB Rating.

This year there maybe be as many as 4 QBs who reach 5,000 yards for their first time, but let's face it, as the NFL continues to change rules to aid the passing game, it will happen more and more. Before this year however, only a total of 5 QBs have ever reached that mark. Only one has done it multiple times (Brees 5 times). Considering Stafford did it 7 years ago, this is still a huge feat.

Before this year, a total of only 7 QBs have ever thrown for 40+ TDs in a season. So you can see that in 2011, Stafford had the kind of season that put him in elite company. Those numbers for a QB are considered successful by any standards that are even reasonable. To say that is not a successful season for a quarterback, is being simply ridiculous. When you consider that in 2011, Stafford had also injured his throwing hand ans played through it wearing a glove, and in the four games and a bye week while he was healing, he threw ten of those picks? That is only 6 interceptions in the other 12 games. That season is even more impressive. It is one of the greatest single seasons by a QB in history. Average QBs simply dont do that under any circumstances. Yet even if you really wanted to say this was an anomaly, it might interest you that in 2012, Stafford came only 33 yards shy of breaking the 5,000 yard plateau a second time?

I know, you are still wanting to see the wins.

In 2011, the Lions won 10 games. The most wins the Lions had in the previous ten seasons was seven! But in Stafford's first healthy season after coming to a team that went 0-16 the year before he was drafted and was nearly void of talent, he has a historic season and the Lions win 10 games and go to the playoffs. In that game, Stafford threw two picks, but he also threw for 380 yards and 3 TDs.

The picks might bother you though, but consider what position he was put in. The only reason they were playing that game was because they lost to the Packers in the last game of the season, giving GB the bye week instead of the Lions having it. Against the Packers, Stafford threw for 520 yards, 5 TDs and another 2 picks. 

Oh my God those picks again right? Try to understand something. When your team cant run the ball and defenses are playing pure pass coverage, and you are forced to air the ball out deep almost every play to one good receiver and you are are still playing behind because your defense cant stop a pass? The miscues will happen.

In week 17 and the playoff game, Stafford threw for a total of 900 yards and 8 TDs. In 2 freaking games! He attempted 102 passes in those two games and completed 64 of them.  Mean while, the Lions as a team ran for a total of 105 yards and the defense allowed 946 yards, 9 TDs, and only picked off 1 pass.

In case you haven't figured it out yet, the Lions did not lose those games because Stafford was not successful in those games. They lost because the run game didn't even come close to helping him in the least bit and the defense may have been even worse. Just imagine, without Stafford, the Lions would not have even come close to the playoffs that season. With even a decent defense they would have had a bye week and possibly won a playoff game and more.

However the scheme was not perfect back then either. Linehan had two major flaws. 1) He had no run game or short passing game. (Calvin Johnson had over 200 yards in both of those games) 2) He made zero adjustments.

The Lions had several come from behind wins in 2011 and in one interview Schwartz was asked what kind of adjustments he was making at half times that they were moving the ball in the second half so much better. His answer was "We don't really make adjustments. We just let great players make great plays".

In 2012, defenses started dropping two safeties deep along with doubling up coverage on Calvin Johnson. Their only mission was to take the big play away. Even with that, Stafford threw for almost 5,000 yards again, but they were not able to come back and win like they were the year before. Schwartz ended up being true to his word and the coaches never made any adjustments, and they only won 4 games. In 2013 they continued with the same thing and still didn't adjust the scheme to handle short passes or a run game and won only 7 games and the coaches were fired after that. Even so, in that scheme, Stafford threw for 14,655 yards in three seasons.

Then Came Caldwell and he hire Joe Lombardi to be the OC. Lombardi had everyone on the offense confused, especially the offensive linemen. Quite often they were missing their assignments completely and letting defenders come through untouched. Stafford went from 23 sacks in 2013, to 45 in 2014 and 44 in 2015. Meanwhile Lombardi kept calling down field pass plays that took time to develop while the OL was never giving the receivers enough time to run their routes.

In 2014 the Lions had finally put together a good defense and ended with a top 3 defense in the NFL. Lombardi's aggressive scheme with no protection only moved the ball when teams were in prevent defense. Stafford directed an NFL record 8 come from behind 4th quarter wins that year and they won 11 games and made the playoffs.


The Myth of the Bad Call .... Non Call
Fans like to blame the loss on the refs for the blatantly bad pass interference call that they decided to strangely pick up the flag "after" they marked off the yardage and moved the chains. The truth was the Lions weren't going to win that game anyway. Not because of Stafford or the offense, but because the top ranked defense. What a lot of fans don't remember is that the Lions defense was literally shutting the Cowboys offense down for half a game and well into the third quarter. Then the worst case scenario happened. The Lions top CB that year, Rashean Mathis left the game injured. With only one good cornerback on the defense in Slay, the Cowboys started moving the ball at will and ended up winning the game partially due to a controversial (Ridiculously bad) penalty/pick up the flag choke by the refs. But as bad as that call was, the Lions could not stop the Cowboys from moving the ball with one CB and they likely were not going to win anyway.

No Replacements
In the off season, Suh left and Mathis never came back from injury the same and soon retired. The Lions lost IMO the two most important keys to a great 4-3 defense. They lost their pass rushing DT and one of their good CBs. Without replacing them with similar types of players, they were essentially playing prevent defense all year. If you don't have a DT who takes away the pocket, the QB will simply step up into a clean pocket to escape the DE's. With only one good CB, it doesn't take long for a WR to come open.

After a year and a half of pure confusion in the offense, Lombardi was fired and in came Jim Bob Cooter. At first he looked like a genius. Again, many fans believe he dumbed down the playbook, but the truth is he just cut out some of the long developing plays and started calling short passes to get rid of the ball quicker. This protected Stafford a little more and helped him have more open receivers. In the off-season Cooter trashed Lombardi's playbook and designed his own, according to his words. His scheme has left the downfield passes nearly completely for short dink and dunk passes.  He has taken the gunslinger ways from Stafford and turned him into a pure game manager. That just doesn't fit Stafford's football personality.

The Myth of Jim Bob Cooter
Another misconception many fans and even most of the media had after the first season with Cooter was that he had developed Stafford into a much more efficient QB.  This belief comes from doing nothing but looking at the stats and seeing the drop in picks and rise in completion percentage. If you don't really pay attention to what all is happening, that is the conclusion one would have when looking at those stats. The guys from 97.1 the Ticket radio station were a big part of pushing that belief. They didn't look at the whole picture, saw the stats and came to a wrong conclusion, and then they pushed it to the listeners and the average fan being the sheep they are, started believing it.  Then Patricia came in and didn't watch all of the Lions games to come to his own conclusion and likely heard the media hype and possibly the Fords repeating it as well and decided to keep the OC who was credited with developing Stafford into a more efficient QB. Unfortunately they were all wrong.

Cooter never did a single thing that actually developed Stafford.  All he did was call short pass plays instead of the continuous down field passes that Linehan and Lombardi called. When a QB is always airing it out, he will complete fewer and throw more picks. When you start having him dink and dunk with safe passes, his pick rate will drop and his completion percentage will rise naturally. Its basic football 101 logic. But along with helping those statistics of Stafford's, it had bad effects on other things. When a team only dins and dunks and never throws down field until they are two scores down, it draws the safeties in closer as they anticipate short passes. It gives the short route receivers less room to run and makes it harder for them to get desparation. Something the Lions are struggling with badly now. It takes the run game away some. Something the Lions are having their best year with but due to having beast top picks in the draft and great RBs to do.

The Cure
Stafford is a gun slinger. Not a game manager. He needs to be a part of an aggressive offense that moves the ball down field. He needs a coordinator who will be aggressive but just not stupidly like Linehan did where he had no short game at all. A good OC will mix the plays up. He will dink and dunk, throw in a handful of medium range passes as well as go deep here and there. If you don't mix it up, you become very predictable and basic and that is easy to defend.  Linehan was the closest to what Stafford needs but he was still too predictable with down field passing only. Lombardi was just a mess. Cooter is far too conservative and has taken Stafford out of his element completely. If the Lions would add an OC who is aggressive but knows how to mix it all up as well as use a little imagination, and they continue to have this run game, and they add a good CB and D-linemen? They can have a very good team. Then you will finally see Stafford in his element and having success as a QB again, while the better run game and defense would give the TEAM more success in the win column.

Stafford Does More With Less than Any Elite Quarterback

Stafford has done more with less than any elite quarterback since 1995.

I pulled some stats on defensive rankings and run game rankings for every team since 1995. That is 23 years of football. For each team, I took where they ranked in the NFL for each year in the following categories.

DEFENSE
Defense Points Allowed per game
Defense Yards Allowed per Play
OFFENSE
Rushing Attempts per game
Rushing yards per play
Rushing Yards per game
Rushing Touchdowns scored

Then I took these 6 rankings and got the average for them for a Total Support for the QB ranking.

These are statistics available to me that support a QB and can make it easier or harder for him to succeed. These same exact stats are used for every team every year for all QBs. There is no bias in this. (I will add OL Stats when I find good ones)

The Worst Support for any QB since 1995 (300 attempts or more) was...  2014 Derek Carr - Oak with a support ranking of 29.0 and his QB Rating that year was 76.6

To give a clearer picture, this is where his team ranked in the NFL for each of those stats....
32nd - Defense Points Allowed per game
20th - Defense Yards Allowed per Play
32nd - Rushing Attempts per game
26th - Rushing yards per play
32nd - Rushing Yards per game
32nd - Rushing Touchdowns scored

32+20+32+26+32+32 = 174 / 6 = 29.0

In case you arent following, the higher the number, the worse support a QB received from his run game and defense.

Just for kicks and giggles, Joey Harrington ranked 3rd in 2003 with a support ranking of 28.7. His QB Rating was 63.9

A total of 46 QBs have had a support ranking of 25.0 or higher. These are the  7 QBs who kept a QBR of 90+ with a support of 25+
2017 Matt Stafford Det - Support 26.7 - QBR 99.3
2015 Matt Stafford DET - Support 25.5 - QBR 97.0
2008 Kurt Warner ARI ..- Support 26.2 - QBR 96.9
2012 Drew Brees NO ....- Support 25.0 - QBR 96.3
2016 Matt Stafford DET - Support 25.5 - QBR 96.3
2015 Philip Rivers SD .- Support 27.7 - QBR 93.8
2012 Tony Romo DAL ....- Support 28.0 - QBR 90.5

To give you some more perspective, this is what some elite QB have had to deal with in their careers....

Drew Brees
10.9 or under = 4 times
11-15.9 = 4 Times
16-24.9 = 7 Times
25+ = 1 Time

Tom Brady
10.9 or under = 6 times
11-15.9 = 5 Times
16-24.9 = 5 Times
25+ = 0 Times

Aaron Rodgers
10.9 or under = 1 time
11-15.9 = 3 Times
16-24.9 = 4 Times
25+ = 0 Times

Matt Ryan
10.9 or under = 1 time
11-15.9 = 4 Times
16-24.9 = 4 Times
25+ = 0 Times

Philip Rivers
10.9 or under = 3 times
11-15.9 = 0 Times
16-24.9 = 8 Times
25+ = 1 Time

Peyton Manning
10.9 or under = 2 times
11-15.9 = 7 Times
16-24.9 = 7 Times
25+ = 1 Times

Ben Roethlisberger
10.9 or under = 4 times
11-15.9 = 4 Times
16-24.9 = 4 Times
25+ = 0 Times

Matthew Stafford
10.9 or under = 0 times
11-15.9 = 0 Times
16-24.9 = 4 Times
25+ = 4 Times

The Matthew Stafford Debate: Using Stats, Facts and Logic

When judging a player or a team in sports, you simply cannot ignore stats or logic. Both need to be considered and weighed. I will use both in this article.

Argument 1: Stafford has a losing record. He has a terrible record against good teams. He has never won a playoff game much less made a Super Bowl.

Counter 1: When a team wins the Super Bowl, the entire team, all 53 players and some will receive a ring. Not just the QB. That is because it is a team sport and it is the "team" that wins or loses a game. Not one single player. This is also why most reputable sites do not show wins and losses in a players stats.

There is not a QB that has ever played who can win without help from his teammates. To complete a single pass, he needs the line to protect him long enough to find an open receiver and he needs a receiver to get open as well as catch the ball. Both of those can be effected by the plays design and route pattern. Succeeding at a consistent level can be affected by how good the run game is. Yet even if all of these do well enough to score points, they still will not win unless the defense stops the opponent from scoring more points than they do. In the end, only a team can win or lose. A quarterback can only do what every other player on that team can do. His job. Whichever team has the most players (and coaches) who do their job right the most, will win the game.

If we are talking about who plays on the better team, wins and losses can be a good strong argument. When comparing a player to another or just grading a player on his own merits, wins and losses of any kind simply cannot be considered a logical argument.

Argument 2: Stafford throws a lot of picks.

Counter 2: In his first 3 seasons as a healthy full season starter (2011-2013) Stafford had 16, 17 & 19 picks. Since then he has had 12, 13, 10, & 10 picks. Those are not considered to be a lot of interceptions at all. Especially when every defense has known that they cannot run the ball and to move it the Lions had to air it out. A lot!  He already has 10 picks in 11 games of 2018 and that is a lot, and that can be attributed to a few different things. After several seasons of being sacked as much as he has, he may be getting happy feet and making bad throws. Or it could be the routes are so bad that receivers simply don't get any separation and he is forced to throw into tighter places far more often than other QBs are. It could also be the plays are so basic that defenders are recognizing them and jumping routes as he is releasing the ball.

Considering he has a recent history of not turning it over much, it is much more likelier that the problem lies somewhere in the last two reasons than the first. When you add in the fact that he is taking a ton of sacks again, and the Lions receivers are ranked as the very worst in the NFL in getting separation, its easy to see where the truth lies on this argument.

Argument 3: Ex quarterbacks like Gannon are saying he should be winning more by this point in his career.

Counter 3: First, Gannon did not start putting up good numbers until his 13th season I think it was. Not his 10th. Second, I will refer you back to Argument and Analysis 1 and add that the simple fact Gannon and any other analyst is using wins and losses as a point against him is proof that they simply don't understand the logic of the game and played their positions only. They did not go on to win games as coaches or GMs. They have never proven they know what it takes for a "Team" to win. They simply played their own position and from the sound of it, have the ridiculous egos to believe they did it all and not their teams.

Argument 4: Stafford gets all of his yards in garbage time against prevent defenses. His nickname of Stat Padford is a good one.

Counter 4: As of a couple weeks ago, Stafford had more yards in the 2nd quarter for his career, than he did in the 4th quarter for his career. Teams usually don't play prevent defense in the 2nd quarter. In the last few years it is likely more heavily to the 4th quarter but that is not because he doesn't complete passes in the other quarters. It is due to the schemes being a dink and dunk for the first half or more until they are two scores down and playing from behind in the 4th quarter. In 2018 so far, currently Stafford has 1,615 yards in the second half compared to 1,226 yards in the first half with only 24 attempts fewer in the first half. Yet he is completing 69.1% of his first half passes compared to 65.1% of the second half passes. In fact, he has only 8 fewer completions in the first half than the second half. That means Cooter is running the ball more in the first half, and calling short passes in the first half. When a QBs lowest total yards per quarter is in the first quarter and his completion % is much better in the first quarter than any other quarter, the problem is the scheme. Stafford's 1st quarter % is currently 72.5%. His 4th quarter is second highest at 66.9%.

 
Arguments so far: For every argument that is used against Stafford, they are either unfair arguments to begin with (win loss records) or they can be debunked very easily with good logic and stats. To this day I have never heard one good QB stat that can be used to show Stafford is not a good QB.  Now I will look at some other stats that stand up for Stafford being better than good.

Pro Argument 1: Stafford holds several NFL Passing records. Something you cannot do for bad or average QBs and usually not for good QBs.

• Youngest QB to throw for 5 TDs in one game. 

•  Only three other QBs have thrown for 5,000 yards in a season.

•  Most come from behind 4th quarter wins in a season.

•  First player in NFL history to complete 60% of his passes in each game of the season.

•  Most consecutive 350+ passing yard games.

•  Most pass attempts in a season.

•  Fastest player to 15,000 yards, 20,000 yards, 25,000 yards, & 30,000 yards.

If those are so easy to do by padding stats in garbage time, why aren't there other QBs on bad teams that do it? Because none have been good enough to do it. That's why.

Pro Argument 2: When a player does something that only the elite have done, it is possible its just an anomaly. However, if a player does multiple things that only elite players have matched, you need to consider that player in the conversation for elite. It simply does not make any sense to think a player can do what only the elite players have done, and still think he isn't very good.

Stafford has thrown for over 5,000 yards in one season. (Almost did it twice). Only elite have done it.

Stafford has thrown for 40+ TDs in a season. Only elite QBs have done that.

Stafford has thrown for 4,000 yards, 7 consecutive seasons. Only elite QBs have done that.

Look at the list of NFL records I previously mentioned. Nobody has done better than him in those.

Every argument for why he is not very good can be countered with simple logic or stats. Every one of them! On the other hand there are stats that show he can do what only elite QBs have done. There is no argument to counter that. The only possible way a QB can put up numbers that only elite have matched and still not be elite himself, is if he is the only QB who has ever been on a team that could not run the ball and they had to count on his arm to move the ball. The problem is there have been many, many QBs on teams that could not run the ball. So why didn't they put up the stats? Because they were not good enough for a team to rely solely on their arm to move the ball, and then actually do it.

The fact that the Lions have never had a good run game and are forced to rely solely on Stafford's arm to move the ball, and defenses know he is passing, and he still puts up those yards every year? That is evidence to him being an elite QB who has been stuck on a bad team. Because he has been good enough to do what only the elite have done, even though the defense doesn't even worry about stopping the run.

What fans fail to understand is how much even the elite QBs need help in order to be successful. They don't realize how important a good run game is. How much it helps a QB if the opposing defense has to pay attention to the run game and react to what the play is rather than fully expect a pass every play. That slight hesitation can create room for receivers to run. It can spring WRs and give them better separation.

Aaron Rodgers in his first ten years as a full time starter, his teams run game (TD scored) has ranked 24, 5, 18, 16, 25, 5, 11, 21, 20, 11.  Only twice was it ranked in the bottom ten of the NFL.  Twice it was ranked in the top ten.

In Tom Brady's 17 years as a full time starter, his offensive run game (TDs scored) has only been ranked in the bottom ten, two times. It has ranked in the top ten, twelve times.

In Brees' 16 seasons, his offensive run game ranked in the bottom ten, twice. It ranked in the top ten, twelve times.

In Stafford's 9 year career, his offensive run game was ranked in the bottom ten four times, and ranked in the top ten only once. Just for added measure to show how bad the run game support has been for Stafford? When it comes to yards per game, the Lions have ranked in the bottom ten, eight times. Only once did they not fall in the bottom ten. In five seasons they ranked in the bottom five. Over his career, their best ranking has been 17th.

Still, most fans biggest complaint on Stafford is that he doesn't win enough. As if that was a QB stat and not a team stat. In Stafford's career, the Lions run game has ranked in the bottom ten in every season but one. The Lions defense has ranked (Pts given up) in the top 10 only once. They have ranked in the bottom ten, 4 times.

If the Lions defense is not stopping teams from scoring, and the run game isnt keeping opposing defenses honest, how do you expect Stafford to win?  For any team to win, they need to do it in three areas of the game. Offensive run game, offensive pass game, and defense stopping the other team from scoring. The Lions have consistently had a good passing team with Stafford and have consistently failed in the run game and the defense. It doesnt matter who you have as the QB, if they dont stop the other team from scoring and the run game isnt helping keeping the defense honest, they will not win. To expect Stafford to do what no other QB in the history of the NFL has consistently done, is nothing short than hating him for not performing miracles.

If you expect Stafford to do what even Brady, Rodgers and Brees isnt expected to do, you must believe Stafford is the greatest QB to ever play the game. If you don't think he is, then don't expect more out of him than the best QBs to ever play the game are expected to do.

The Lions Run Game Rests in the Hands of the Coaches

The Lions have the ability to have a great running game this year. If they don't, your fingers should be pointed at one place only. The coaches. 

The offensive line is talented. Very talented.  With Lang and Wagner healthy on the right side, and Decker a 1st round pick on the LT spot, the only question on the OL is who will play in which position out of Glasgow and Ragnow. Glasgow was playing well at LG last year but when he moved to Center, he was actually one of the better Centers in the NFL during those games.  Then the Lions drafted Ragnow who is a Center but can play guard.  Logically they will move Glasgow to Center and play Ragnow at LG for this year. Guard is an easier position to play physically and mentally for a rookie. It would be too much on the rookie t0 be thrust into a starting spot at Center on a team that is desperate for a run game. The fact Ragnow is supposed to be a road grader as well, says the Lions can really use him playing LG. Either way they have a lot of talent and they have added decent depth as well for this coming year.

They added Blount to be their short yardage beast and drafted a RB with speed and agility who also has fair power. The question will be if the Lions do what I believe they will do or if they do what I think they should do.

What I believe they will do...

On first and second downs they will use Kerryon Johnson for the most part. I expect them to give a few of those carries to Ameer Abdulah in hopes of keeping Johnson fresh and healthy for his rookie year.  On passing downs they will use Riddick and sometimes Abdullah with a touch of Johnson mixed in. On short yardage downs they will show us Blount. Spreading the ball out like this will keep the players fresher but it will have its down sides. For one, it wont allow for any one RB to pile up yards and get a good season going. The Lions will have no rushing leaders and likely wont even have a thousand yard rusher again. It will also allow defenses to recognize what is coming by who is on the field for the majority of the plays. The Lions will end up with a middle of the road run game.

What I think they should do...

Lean heavy on Kerryon for the first three downs. Make the guy their 3 down running back. Give him rests now and then and use Abdullah in his place during those times. IF it is obvious Johnson is getting hit hard and stopped early right off the bat in a game, change up and use Abdullah or start giving Blount some early plays in that case.  I don't believe in RB by Committees because they tend to tip off what is coming too much. Maybe Johnson will drop a few balls that Riddick would catch, I don't care. The difference will be made up and then some by having his speed and power allowing him a chance to break long gains off at a much higher clip than Riddick and defenses wont know if it is a pass or run when Johnson is staying on the field. Blount will be the obvious short yardage down guy but will also help run time down with leads.

Making Kerryon the main #1 Running back would keep defenses off balance, will get fans into the game more and give the fans a chance to see a thousand yard rusher in Detroit again. And the first time Johnson takes one to the house on 3rd down, it will make every fan forget about Riddick who has zero ability to do the same.

In the end, it really doesn't matter too much if they do what I think they should or what I think they will do.  The fact is, if they fix the scheme problems, the Lions run game will come to life. This will force defenses to play honest and open up the passing game more, allowing Stafford to take advantage of his golden arm. The Lions have the talent to be the best offense in the NFL and the only way it fails to have a good run game this year is if the coaches fail again.

The good sign is that they drafted a Fullback in the 7th round of the draft this year. Bawden is already hurt for the season but it doesn't matter. They will still use Bellore as their fullback. The fact they drafted Bawden shows they plan on using a FB this year and that is a good sign they will change up their offensive scheme when it comes to the run game. That gives me hope. That should give every Lions fan hope.

The Truth to What Tom Brady's 5 Superbowl Rings Mean

How many times have you heard someone say that Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time because he has five Superbowl rings?  There is no stat better than this one.... if you are trying to tell the world that you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

Don't get your panties in a bunch quite yet. I am not saying Brady isn't a great QB. I am not even saying he isn't elite. Hell, I am not even saying Brady isn't the GOAT.... yet.  I am only stating that if you use his Superbowl Rings as a credible statistic to point out how great he is, you simply don't understand the game of Football.

Let's break down the NFL pass.  A QB needs to take a snap from center, drop back and survey the field. He has to find an open receiver and throw the ball to that open receiver. Then that open receiver needs to actually catch it.  Simple enough right?  Most of us have done that same thing playing football in the yard with friends.  Now let's break down what call can go wrong to stop that from being a successfully completed pass.

If just one of the five offensive linemen in front of the QB misses his assignment, it is likely the play will not succeed.

If a receiver doesn't get open, the QB wont have anyone to throw the ball too.

If the receiver does get open, the QB needs to make an accurate throw and assuming he does that, the WR will still need to catch the ball.

What about the receivers? If they want to succeed, they need to get away from the guy covering them, the quarterback needs to throw the ball accurately enough for the receiver to reach it.  Then he still needs to actually catch the ball.

How about the running back?  If the offensive line doesn't open a hole, it makes his ob nearly impossible. If the passing game isn't working, it makes it too easy for the defense to focus on the RB and stop him from getting anywhere.

Let's say that all of the players do their jobs correctly, but the offensive coordinator has designed bad plays or calls bad plays. The offense will likely not be successful still. In 2017, Jim Bob Cooter for the Lions called run plays from formations with 2 or fewer receivers lined up wide of the line. He called pass plays with three or more receivers lined up wide. He did this at an average of around 85% of the plays and one game it hit 91%.


Let's put it this way. Let's pretend the Eagles were to tip off more than 80% of their running plays and their passing plays simply by what formation they lined up in. Do you think they would have won the Superbowl still? If they did this all year, how many games would they win?  Would they lose more games because their talent was worse? Nope!  They would lose more games because tipping off the plays makes it nearly impossible for an offense to be successful.

Now this so far has been showing how dependent the offense is on every player doing their job for it to be successful. Including the coordinator. If they don't do a good job as a unit, they will not score many points, and they will lose a lot of games. And that is just the offense. I don't even need to get in deep about the defense.   Even if the offense plays well and scores 45 points, the team still will not win games if the defense gives up  50 points.

If the cornerbacks don't cover their guys. If they don't tackle well. If Linebackers don't cover, tackle or fill the run lanes. If the linemen don't close off run lanes or put any pressure on the opposing QBs.

To win games, most of this needs to be played well. To beat the good teams in the NFL, you need all of these things to do well. It doesn't matter if the best QB ever to step on the field is playing, if he doesn't get the help he needs, he will not be successful. If the entire team doesn't do well, they will not win.

The NFL is not the NBA.  One player cannot pick up a bad team and carry them on his back to reach the Superbowl.  This is real NFL football. Not a Disney Movie!  Superbowls have practically nothing to do with how good any single player is and they have everything to do with how good the entire team is.

A good example of this is Tom Brady and Arron Rodgers. IF you include the Rings, then obviously Brady is the best ever, but the numbers say otherwise.

Since it can really make a difference on how much preparation a QB gets in the week before a game, I looked up statistics for the two QBs using specific data.  I only included games where the player started and attempted at least 15 passes. At this point of his career, Aaron Rodgers has 139 games under his belt.  So I went back and got Brady's first 139 games as well and matched them up.

Other than wins, Rodgers is better than Brady in every single category.  With 184 more attempts, Rodgers has 3,842 more yards. Averages more than half a yard more per play. 57 more passing TDs and 18 more rushing TDs for a total of 75 more scores. Meanwhile he threw 26 fewer interceptions. And he did this while getting sacked 108 more times. God knows how many more times he was hit and hurried. 

The simple fact is, there is no comparison between these two quarterbacks. Rodgers has not only out performed Brady, he destroys Brady when you compare their stats as fairly as possible. But Brady has the Superbowl ring for each finger on his hand for one reason alone. He has been on a much better team.

Looking at Superbowl rings to judge how good a single player is, does not do anything other than show the world you don't understand football. Because you obviously cant tell the difference between a team stat and a player's stat. Do yourself a favor. Don't be that guy! Instead, be the guy who when someone uses rings or wins and losses as a QB stat, you need to send them a link to this article then sit back and shake your head knowingly.

Ok, now I am saying Brady isn't the GOAT.

It Takes a Stupid Fan to Think Stafford is Not Great

This isn't Hollywood folks, it is real NFL Football. Players on bad teams tend to lose. A lot. It doesn't matter how good they are, if they don't get enough help, they will lose to better teams. You wont get many promos for games saying "Stafford vs Brady". You will see them more in other sports. "Tyson vs Holyfield", "Verlander vs Scherzer", "Lebron vs Durant"!  These all make good promos because in other sports one player can sometime pick a team up and carry it on his back like they do in Hollywood movies. Its not something you see in the NFL. You will see a promo like that once in a while but they don't get near the attention as in other sports for one very simple reason. The NFL is the ultimate in "Team" sports!

Every time I hear someone say "Stafford's not that great! He never wins big games!", I want to slam my forehead into my desk. Since it is hard to type with a concussion when you are a search and destroy typist, I am stuck with just shaking my head slowly and mumbling something about people not knowing anything about football. Every time anyone lifts an NFL player up above another who has bigger stats only because he has Superbowl rings, I look up and ask God why he had to place so many stupid people on the Earth. It is the biggest problem with the world placing so many laws on us. It derails the process of Natural selection!

Another great cliche that uses enough logic to make a goldfish look smart? "Stafford gets all his yards against prevent defenses in the fourth quarter."

Can someone please point out that last year Stafford had more yards in the 2nd and in the 3rd quarters than he had in the 4th quarters!

The worst thing is? These aren't even the dumbest of the lot! Oh no! They have a big brother when it comes to stupidity! The worst ones are those who will comment and laugh at me and say I dont know anything about football when I say Stafford is an elite quarterback who has been stuck on a bad team.

Seriously though, this is not Hollywood. Players don't "will" bad teams to victory over much better teams. On occasion, a bad team can beat a good team, but its not because one player placed them on his back and carried them. It is because the entire team put in their best effort and catch the good team on a bad day.  There are many who think Emmett Smith is a better running back than Barry Sanders.  No, seriously! There are. Stop laughing. Simply because Smith has Superbowl Rings and the all time rushing yards record. They don't even acknowledge that Sanders had the record wrapped up before retiring early. They don't even consider the fact that if Barry had been behind the Cowboys offensive line, that he would have had nearly 2,000 yards every year.  It is simple logic here. If two players are similar in stats year to year but one is on a great team and a great line blocking for him, and the other has a line with two good players and three bad ones? The guy who is doing just as much with less to work with is the better player. Hands down!  For some reason people refuse to use this simple logic with Stafford.

Stafford has 7 consecutive seasons of 4,000+ yards in his 9 year career so far. Only one has more consecutive years of it. Drew Brees. Brady only has 9 total in his 17 years. Manning had 14 total and might have had 12 or 13 in a row if not for his one injured year that split them up. Brees has done it 12 straight times now. No other QB has come close to matching these guys. Even Aaron Rodgers has not done this more than twice in a row yet.

Peyton Manning = 17 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 14, consecutive = 6

Tom Brady = 17 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 9, consecutive = 5

Drew Brees = 16 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 12, consecutive = 12

Matthew Stafford = 9 seasons, seasons over 4,000 yards = 7, consecutive = 7

Then of course people will say its easy to put up a bunch of yards when you throw so many passes, right?  Wrong!

Stafford is different than these others for one reason. He has had less help on his team than the others through his career.  In his 9 seasons, Stafford has only had seven 100 yard rushers spread out through 4 different seasons to take some pressure off his back.  Look, there are two ways of moving the ball in the NFL. Passing and Running. The Lions have never had a run game behind Stafford. This is essentially the same as the Lions trotting Stafford out onto the field every week and just announcing to the other team, "We cant run the ball. You know it. We know it. Everyone knows we have to pass the ball. Try and stop us!" And Stafford still succeeds enough to put up numbers with the best ever. To make it even harder on him, only one season has Stafford enjoyed a good defense that would consistently get him the ball back to give him more opportunities. He has to make the most of the natural process of the drives.

The Lions have had zero run game. They have had bad to average defenses. Every year they go into the season with Stafford's arm and if that fails they have nothing else to offer. For the most part, Stafford has never even enjoyed a real good blocking offensive line to let him enjoy a clean pocket.  In other words, he has never had the luxuries in a game that Brady, Brees, Manning and Rodgers have had in their careers.

What those other QBs have done is nothing less than outstanding. Their numbers make them elite. Some of the greatest to ever play the game. For Matthew Stafford to match them under his circumstances? That is nothing short of phenomenal.  If you think he isnt elite, then show me another average or even decent QB who has put up even close to similar numbers. There have been a whole ton of bad teams in the history of the NFL who couldn't run the ball. Who had to depend on QBs passing the ball a lot. Do you know why there are no others who match Stafford's numbers? Because they were not good enough to do it. Why didn't they get as many opportunities to throw the ball a million times? Because they didn't succeed enough with the chances they had and had to give the other team the ball more.

Stafford is not on pace to be one of the great QBs of this era. He is on pace to make a run at being the greatest of all time. All it will take is for him to stay healthy, and by the way, he is one of the toughest QBs of all time too. 

Oh I'm sorry. I forgot that he cant be called elite without winning a Superbowl.  Well for everyone who thinks those rings make a difference to whether a specific player is great or not? With a little luck maybe someone will design a Speak and Spell for NFL fans someday so they can understand this is a "TEAM" Sport!

7th Round Draft Pick, Nick Bawden May be Key to Run Game

Detroit Lions 7th round pick, Fullback Nick Bawden, just may be the best pick of the 2018 draft.

That is a huge statement to make for a guy drafted in the last round. In this case however, he could very well deserve it. Not because he is so good mind you. We wont see that until they strap on pads and start hitting, but simply for what he represents.

I could not even guess how many years it has been since the fullback position was a true part of the Lions offense. They have had fullbacks in the past, but they were usually more of the hybrid Fullback. A guy who is meant for running with the ball and swinging out for passes as much as lead blocking. Those guys tend to be slightly smaller than true lead blocking fullbacks.

Michael Burton was the last player to man the position for the Lions. He was listed at 6' and 235 lbs.  Burton was a decent player but nothing special. The Lions let him go before the 2017 campaign was under way.

It is something the Lions last few coaches have taken as an unneeded luxury. They never really understood how import a good lead blocker is for a run game. Consequently, the Lions running game has been one of the worst in the NFL in recent years. To the point where they completely gave up even trying to run on short yardage downs in the second half of last season.

Then here in the 2018 draft they selected Nick Bawden, who comes in 2 inches taller and ten pound heavier, and he represents a change back to the old ways of running the ball. When the offensive line opens a hole up, it will be the fullbacks duty to clear the LB or Safety who is trying to fill it. Without a lead blocker in recent years, the Lions left it up to the ball handler to either beat the defense-men to the hole or run him over. The Lions have not had anyone fast enough to beat them to the hole and they haven't had anyone with enough power to run over them. This year they have added a running back in Legarrette Blount who can run over them, Kerryon Johnson who might actually beat them to the hole, and as icing on top, they added a fullback who will clear the way.

Last year the Lions talent at running back was not as much of the problem as many fans seem to think. The real problem was in the run scheme. The entire scheme and play calling by Jim Bob Cooter was anti-run at best. Everything they did was the worst thing they could do to have a run game succeed. Adding a fullback this season shows that Patricia might actually know what he is doing and I am expecting to see the first season Stafford has actually had a true run game to back him up.

Some people believe the Lions had a good run game when they had Jahvid Best, but its not really true. Best had a few great runs. He was a threat to take it to the house on any play. That gave the Lions a true run threat and helped Stafford immensely. Right up until Best got hurt again. But Best was not a real threat on short yardage plays. So he only helped Stafford for a couple downs at a time.  Now the Lions should have a run game that will be a threat to get what they need on every down and defenses will not be able to focus on the passing game alone.

So far in Stafford's career it has been a case of, "We cant run the ball. You know we are passing. We know we're passing. Try to stop us!" And the fact Stafford is one of only two QBs to ever have seven consecutive seasons of 4,000 yards or more, says that those defenses couldn't stop them from moving the ball very often. Imagine what he might do with the opposing defenses having to worry about the run as well.